Greetings amigos,
Adam 11 70
SJ 10 69
Phil 7 67
Theo L 7 59
Danny 6 59
Ben 7 55
Theo W 6 54
Nick 7 49
Dave 3 44
Win probability
Why Adam remains favourite (34%)
Adam has been the strongest performer over the tournament:
- Leading on points and tournament-best 11 spot-ons.
- Hasn't had a poor round yet.
- His predictions appear well calibrated rather than reliant on a handful of big exact scores.
A one-point lead isn't much, but over three rounds he has shown the highest underlying level.
SJ (29%)
SJ is the biggest threat. Only one point behind and only one spot-on behind Adam. If you'd only looked at Round 3, SJ actually matched Adam's scoring while continuing to accumulate exact scores. This is very close to a coin flip between the two.
Phil (20%)
Phil has quietly climbed into an excellent position. Although three points back, he's just produced an excellent third round and has demonstrated he can hit the valuable 5-point exact scores. His lower spot-on total compared with Adam and SJ makes him slightly less likely over the remaining fixtures, but he is absolutely in the title race.
Chasing pack
Theo L and Danny (11 points back) are still alive. Eleven points sounds significant, but with 32 games left it could disappear quickly if one player strings together several exact scores. Danny especially has momentum after the best Round 3 (29 points).
Ben and Theo W probably need a spectacular knockout phase to get back into contention.
Nick would likely need almost everything to go right from here.
Dave would require an extraordinary finish plus multiple collapses ahead of him.
Dark horse: Danny
Why Danny over Theo L?
- Highest score of Round 3 by some distance (29 points).
- Four exact scores in one round shows genuine upside.
- Eleven points isn't an impossible deficit with 32 matches remaining.
- If the knockout stage becomes unpredictable, Danny looks the most likely player outside the top three to capitalise.
A: Czech Rep v Mexico 1-2 0-3 (1pt)
A: S Africa v S Korea 0-2 1-0 (0pts)
B: Bosnia-H v Qatar 1-0 3-1 (1pt)
B: Switzerland v Canada 1-0 2-1 (1pt)
C: Morocco v Haiti 3-0 4-2 (1pt)
C: Scotland v Brazil 1-2 0-3 (1pt)
D: Paraguay v Australia 1-0 0-0 (0pts)
D: Turkey v USA 1-1 3-2 (0pts)
E: Curacao v Ivory Coast 0-3 0-2 (1pt)
E: Ecuador v Germany 1-2 2-1 (0pts)
F: Japan v Sweden 1-0 1-1 (0pts)
F: Tunisia v Netherlands 0-2 1-3 (1pt)
G: Egypt v Iran 1-1 1-1 (3pts)
G: New Zealand v Belgium 0-2 1-5 (1pt)
H: Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia 1-1 0-0 (1pt)
H: Uruguay v Spain 1-1 0-1 (0pts)
I: Norway v France 1-2 1-4 (1pt)
I: Senegal v Iraq 3-0 5-0 (1pt)
J: Algeria v Austria 1-1 3-3 (1pt)
J: Jordan v Argentina 0-3 1-3 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Portugal 1-2 0-0 (0pts)
K: Congo DR v Uzbekistan 1-0 3-1 (1pt)
L: Croatia v Ghana 3-0 2-1 (1pt)
L: Panama v England 0-2 0-2 (3pts)
Total: 2 spot-ons; 21 points.
Ben
A: Czech Rep v Mexico 2-2 0-3 (0pts)
A: S Africa v S Korea 1-0 1-0 (3pts)
B: Bosnia-H v Qatar 1-1 3-1 (0pts)
B: Switzerland v Canada 2-1 2-1 (3pts)
C: Morocco v Haiti 2-0 4-2 (1pt)
C: Scotland v Brazil 1-3 0-3 (1pt)
D: Paraguay v Australia 2-1 0-0 (0pts)
D: Turkey v USA 1-2 3-2 (0pts)
E: Curacao v Ivory Coast 0-3 0-2 (1pt)
E: Ecuador v Germany 1-2 2-1 (0pts)
F: Japan v Sweden 2-2 1-1 (1pt)
F: Tunisia v Netherlands 1-2 1-3 (1pt)
G: Egypt v Iran 2-0 1-1 (0pts)
G: New Zealand v Belgium 1-2 1-5 (1pt)
H: Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia 0-1 0-0 (0pts)
H: Uruguay v Spain 1-2 0-1 (1pt)
I: Norway v France 2-3 1-4 (1pt)
I: Senegal v Iraq 3-1 5-0 (1pt)
J: Algeria v Austria 1-2 3-3 (0pts)
J: Jordan v Argentina 0-5 1-3 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Portugal 1-1 0-0 (1pt)
K: Congo DR v Uzbekistan 2-1 3-1 (3pts)
L: Croatia v Ghana 1-1 2-1 (0pts)
L: Panama v England 0-3 0-2 (1pt)
Total: 3 spot-ons; 21 points.
Theo W
A: Czech Rep v Mexico 1-1 0-3 (0pts)
A: S Africa v S Korea 0-2 1-0 (0pts)
B: Bosnia-H v Qatar 2-2 3-1 (0pts)
B: Switzerland v Canada 2-1 2-1 (3pts)
C: Morocco v Haiti 4-0 4-2 (1pt)
C: Scotland v Brazil 1-2 0-3 (1pt)
D: Paraguay v Australia 1-1 0-0 (1pt)
D: Turkey v USA 1-2 3-2 (0pts)
E: Curacao v Ivory Coast 0-3 0-2 (1pt)
E: Ecuador v Germany 1-2 2-1 (0pts)
F: Japan v Sweden 2-0 1-1 (0pts)
F: Tunisia v Netherlands 0-3 1-3 (1pt)
G: Egypt v Iran 3-1 1-1 (0pts)
G: New Zealand v Belgium 0-4 1-5 (1pt)
H: Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia 1-0 0-0 (0pts)
H: Uruguay v Spain 1-2 0-1 (1pt)
I: Norway v France 2-2 1-4 (0pts)
I: Senegal v Iraq 2-0 5-0 (1pt)
J: Algeria v Austria 0-1 3-3 (0pts)
J: Jordan v Argentina 0-1 1-3 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Portugal 2-2 0-0 (1pt)
K: Congo DR v Uzbekistan 1-1 3-1 (0pts)
L: Croatia v Ghana 0-0 2-1 (0pts)
L: Panama v England 1-3 0-2 (1pt)
Total: 1 spot-ons; 14 points.
SJ
A: Czech Rep v Mexico 1-1 0-3 (0pts)
A: S Africa v S Korea 0-2 1-0 (0pts)
B: Bosnia-H v Qatar 3-0 3-1 (1pt)
B: Switzerland v Canada 2-0 2-1 (1pt)
C: Morocco v Haiti 2-0 4-2 (1pt)
C: Scotland v Brazil 0-3 0-3 (3pts)
D: Paraguay v Australia 1-0 0-0 (0pts)
D: Turkey v USA 3-0 3-2 (1pt)
E: Curacao v Ivory Coast 0-2 0-2 (3pts)
E: Ecuador v Germany 1-1 2-1 (0pts)
F: Japan v Sweden 2-1 1-1 (0pts)
F: Tunisia v Netherlands 0-2 1-3 (1pt)
G: Egypt v Iran 2-1 1-1 (0pts)
G: New Zealand v Belgium 0-3 1-5 (1pt)
H: Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia 1-1 0-0 (1pt)
H: Uruguay v Spain 0-2 0-1 (1pt)
I: Norway v France 1-3 1-4 (1pt)
I: Senegal v Iraq 4-1 5-0 (1pt)
J: Algeria v Austria 1-1 3-3 (1pt)
J: Jordan v Argentina 0-3 1-3 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Portugal 1-3 0-0 (0pts)
K: Congo DR v Uzbekistan 1-1 3-1 (0pts)
L: Croatia v Ghana 1-0 2-1 (1pt)
L: Panama v England 0-2 0-2 (3pts)
Total: 3 spot-ons; 22 points.
Adam
A: Czech Rep v Mexico 0-1 0-3 (1pt)
A: S Africa v S Korea 0-2 1-0 (0pts)
B: Bosnia-H v Qatar 2-0 3-1 (1pt)
B: Switzerland v Canada 0-1 2-1 (0pts)
C: Morocco v Haiti 2-0 4-2 (1pt)
C: Scotland v Brazil 0-3 0-3 (3pts)
D: Paraguay v Australia 0-2 0-0 (0pts)
D: Turkey v USA 0-2 3-2 (0pts)
E: Curacao v Ivory Coast 0-2 0-2 (3pts)
E: Ecuador v Germany 0-2 2-1 (0pts)
F: Japan v Sweden 2-1 1-1 (0pts)
F: Tunisia v Netherlands 0-2 1-3 (1pt)
G: Egypt v Iran 2-1 1-1 (0pts)
G: New Zealand v Belgium 0-1 1-5 (1pt)
H: Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia 1-1 0-0 (1pt)
H: Uruguay v Spain 0-2 0-1 (1pt)
I: Norway v France 0-2 1-4 (1pt)
I: Senegal v Iraq 2-0 5-0 (1pt)
J: Algeria v Austria 1-1 3-3 (1pt)
J: Jordan v Argentina 0-3 1-3 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Portugal 0-2 0-0 (0pts)
K: Congo DR v Uzbekistan 2-0 3-1 (1pt)
L: Croatia v Ghana 1-2 2-1 (0pts)
L: Panama v England 0-2 0-2 (3pts)
Total: 3 spot-ons; 22 points.
Nick
A: Czech Rep v Mexico 0-2 0-3 (1pt)
A: S Africa v S Korea 0-2 1-0 (0pts)
B: Bosnia-H v Qatar 1-1 3-1 (0pts)
B: Switzerland v Canada 1-2 2-1 (0pts)
C: Morocco v Haiti 1-1 4-2 (0pts)
C: Scotland v Brazil 1-0 0-3 (0pts)
D: Paraguay v Australia 1-2 0-0 (0pts)
D: Turkey v USA 1-0 3-2 (1pt)
E: Curacao v Ivory Coast 1-1 0-2 (0pts)
E: Ecuador v Germany 0-2 2-1 (0pts)
F: Japan v Sweden 2-2 1-1 (1pt)
F: Tunisia v Netherlands 0-3 1-3 (1pt)
G: Egypt v Iran 1-1 1-1 (3pts)
G: New Zealand v Belgium 0-1 1-5 (1pt)
H: Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia 0-0 0-0 (5pts)
H: Uruguay v Spain 1-1 0-1 (0pts)
I: Norway v France 2-2 1-4 (0pts)
I: Senegal v Iraq 1-1 5-0 (0pts)
J: Algeria v Austria 1-1 3-3 (1pt)
J: Jordan v Argentina 0-4 1-3 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Portugal 2-2 0-0 (1pt)
K: Congo DR v Uzbekistan 1-0 3-1 (1pt)
L: Croatia v Ghana 0-0 2-1 (0pts)
L: Panama v England 0-3 0-2 (1pt)
Total: 2 spot-ons; 18 points.
Phil
A: Czech Rep v Mexico 1-3 0-3 (1pt)
A: S Africa v S Korea 1-2 1-0 (0pts)
B: Bosnia-H v Qatar 3-1 3-1 (5pts)
B: Switzerland v Canada 1-3 2-1 (0pts)
C: Morocco v Haiti 3-1 4-2 (1pt)
C: Scotland v Brazil 1-3 0-3 (1pt)
D: Paraguay v Australia 3-1 0-0 (0pts)
D: Turkey v USA 1-3 3-2 (0pts)
E: Curacao v Ivory Coast 1-3 0-2 (1pt)
E: Ecuador v Germany 1-3 2-1 (0pts)
F: Japan v Sweden 1-3 1-1 (0pts)
F: Tunisia v Netherlands 1-3 1-3 (5pts)
G: Egypt v Iran 3-1 1-1 (0pts)
G: New Zealand v Belgium 1-1 1-5 (0pts)
H: Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia 2-1 0-0 (0pts)
H: Uruguay v Spain 1-3 0-1 (1pt)
I: Norway v France 1-3 1-4 (1pt)
I: Senegal v Iraq 1-2 5-0 (0pts)
J: Algeria v Austria 1-3 3-3 (0pts)
J: Jordan v Argentina 1-4 1-3 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Portugal 1-3 0-0 (0pts)
K: Congo DR v Uzbekistan 3-1 3-1 (5pts)
L: Croatia v Ghana 1-3 2-1 (0pts)
L: Panama v England 1-3 0-2 (1pt)
Total: 3 spot-ons; 23 points.
Dave
A: Czech Rep v Mexico 2-3 0-3 (1pt)
A: S Africa v S Korea 2-2 1-0 (0pts)
B: Bosnia-H v Qatar 1-1 3-1 (0pts)
B: Switzerland v Canada 2-3 2-1 (0pts)
C: Morocco v Haiti 4-0 4-2 (1pt)
C: Scotland v Brazil 3-2 0-3 (0pts)
D: Paraguay v Australia 0-4 0-0 (0pts)
D: Turkey v USA 1-4 3-2 (0pts)
E: Curacao v Ivory Coast 1-3 0-2 (1pt)
E: Ecuador v Germany 1-3 2-1 (0pts)
F: Japan v Sweden 2-2 1-1 (1pt)
F: Tunisia v Netherlands 1-4 1-3 (1pt)
G: Egypt v Iran 3-0 1-1 (0pts)
G: New Zealand v Belgium 2-2 1-5 (0pts)
H: Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia 2-1 0-0 (0pts)
H: Uruguay v Spain 1-4 0-1 (1pt)
I: Norway v France 2-4 1-4 (1pt)
I: Senegal v Iraq 4-0 5-0 (1pt)
J: Algeria v Austria 2-2 3-3 (1pt)
J: Jordan v Argentina 1-5 1-3 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Portugal 1-2 0-0 (0pts)
K: Congo DR v Uzbekistan 3-1 3-1 (5pts)
L: Croatia v Ghana 2-2 2-1 (0pts)
L: Panama v England 1-3 0-2 (1pt)
Total: 1 spot-on; 16 points.
Danny
A: Czech Rep v Mexico 1-2 0-3 (1pt)
A: S Africa v S Korea 0-0 1-0 (0pts)
B: Bosnia-H v Qatar 2-0 3-1 (1pt)
B: Switzerland v Canada 1-1 2-1 (0pts)
C: Morocco v Haiti 3-0 4-2 (1pt)
C: Scotland v Brazil 1-3 0-3 (1pt)
D: Paraguay v Australia 0-0 0-0 (5pts)
D: Turkey v USA 0-2 3-2 (0pts)
E: Curacao v Ivory Coast 3-1 0-2 (0pts)
E: Ecuador v Germany 0-2 2-1 (0pts)
F: Japan v Sweden 2-1 1-1 (0pts)
F: Tunisia v Netherlands 0-3 1-3 (1pt)
G: Egypt v Iran 1-1 1-1 (3pts)
G: New Zealand v Belgium 0-1 1-5 (1pt)
H: Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia 0-0 0-0 (5pts)
H: Uruguay v Spain 1-2 0-1 (1pt)
I: Norway v France 1-3 1-4 (1pt)
I: Senegal v Iraq 2-0 5-0 (1pt)
J: Algeria v Austria 1-1 3-3 (1pt)
J: Jordan v Argentina 0-4 1-3 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Portugal 1-1 0-0 (1pt)
K: Congo DR v Uzbekistan 2-2 3-1 (0pts)
L: Croatia v Ghana 1-0 2-1 (1pt)
L: Panama v England 0-2 0-2 (3pts)
Total: 4 spot-ons; 29 points.
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