Greetings amigos,
Win probability
Why Adam is favourite
Adam has the profile you want in a long tournament:
- Leader after two rounds & highest spot-on total (8).
- Strong in both rounds rather than relying on one exceptional week.
- Doesn't appear to over-predict goals.
- Frequently lands on realistic scorelines such as 1-0, 2-0, 1-1 and 2-1.
The biggest predictor of future success is usually exact scores rather than simple outcomes, and Adam currently leads that category.
His profile suggests he is likely to continue accumulating points steadily rather than suffering boom-and-bust swings.
Why SJ is almost level
SJ is only one point behind and has seven spot-ons.
The difference between Adam and SJ is stylistic:
- Adam tends to be conservative.
- SJ is slightly more aggressive and therefore a little more volatile.
That volatility can be useful over a World Cup because there are enough matches remaining to make up deficits quickly.
If SJ has another round like Round 2 (26 points), he becomes favourite.
Why Phil remains dangerous
Phil is the classic high-variance predictor.
Strengths:
- Joint highest single-round score so far (26 in Round 1).
- Willing to predict larger scorelines.
- Often finds exact scores in high-goal matches, which are worth 5 points.
Weaknesses:
- Lower spot-on rate overall (4).
- Can have rounds where ambitious predictions produce lots of zeros.
If Phil wins, it'll probably be because he hits a cluster of 4-0s, 3-1s and 5-0s during the knockouts.
Dark Horse: Theo W
If I had to back one player outside the top three, it would be Theo W.
Reasons:
- Outstanding Round 2 (25 points).
- Five spot-ons already.
- Only 8 points off the lead.
- Mixes conservative and ambitious picks better than most.
Unlike Ben or Nick, Theo W is already close enough that one excellent matchday could put him on top and his trajectory is pointing upward.
Danny
Spot-ons Points
Adam 8 48
SJ 7 47
Theo W 5 40
Ben 4 34
Nick 5 31
Danny 2 30
Ben
A: Czech Rep v S Africa 2-1 1-1 (0pts)
A: Mexico v S Korea 2-1 1-0 (1pt)
B: Switzerland v Bosnia-H 1-0 4-1 (1pt)
B: Canada v Qatar 1-0 6-0 (1pt)
C: Scotland v Morocco 1-2 0-1 (1pt)
C: Brazil v Haiti 6-1 3-0 (1pt)
D: USA v Australia 2-0 2-0 (3pts)
D: Turkey v Paraguay 1-1 0-1 (0pts)
E: Germany v Ivory Coast 2-1 2-1 (3pts)
E: Ecuador v Curacao 3-1 0-0 (0pts)
F: Netherlands v Sweden 2-1 5-1 (1pt)
F: Tunisia v Japan 1-2 0-4 (1pt)
G: Belgium v Iran 3-0 0-0 (0pts)
G: New Zealand v Egypt 0-2 1-3 (1pt)
H: Spain v Saudi Arabia 3-0 4-0 (1pt)
H: Uruguay v Cape Verde 3-0 2-2 (0pts)
I: France v Iraq 4-1 3-0 (1pt)
I: Norway v Senegal 1-1 3-2 (0pts)
J: Argentina v Austria 2-1 2-0 (1pt)
J: Jordan v Algeria 0-1 1-2 (1pt)
K: Portugal v Uzbekistan 3-0 5-0 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Congo DR 2-2 1-0 (0pts)
L: England v Ghana 1-0 0-0 (0pts)
L: Panama v Croatia 0-2 0-1 (1pt)
Total: 2 spot-ons; 20 points.
Theo L
A: Czech Rep v S Africa 1-0 1-1 (0pts)
A: Mexico v S Korea 1-1 1-0 (0pts)
B: Switzerland v Bosnia-H 2-0 4-1 (1pt)
B: Canada v Qatar 3-0 6-0 (1pt)
C: Scotland v Morocco 0-2 0-1 (1pt)
C: Brazil v Haiti 4-0 3-0 (1pt)
D: USA v Australia 2-0 2-0 (3pts)
D: Turkey v Paraguay 2-1 0-1 (0pts)
E: Germany v Ivory Coast 3-0 2-1 (1pt)
E: Ecuador v Curacao 3-0 0-0 (0pts)
F: Netherlands v Sweden 3-0 5-1 (1pt)
F: Tunisia v Japan 0-2 0-4 (1pt)
G: Belgium v Iran 2-1 0-0 (0pts)
G: New Zealand v Egypt 0-1 1-3 (1pt)
H: Spain v Saudi Arabia 3-0 4-0 (1pt)
H: Uruguay v Cape Verde 2-0 2-2 (0pts)
I: France v Iraq 4-0 3-0 (1pt)
I: Norway v Senegal 1-1 3-2 (0pts)
J: Argentina v Austria 2-0 2-0 (3pts)
J: Jordan v Algeria 1-2 1-2 (3pts)
K: Portugal v Uzbekistan 4-0 5-0 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Congo DR 2-0 1-0 (1pt)
L: England v Ghana 3-0 0-0 (0pts)
L: Panama v Croatia 0-2 0-1 (1pt)
Total: 3 spot-ons; 24 points.
Theo W
A: Czech Rep v S Africa 1-1 1-1 (3pts)
A: Mexico v S Korea 2-1 1-0 (1pt)
B: Switzerland v Bosnia-H 2-0 4-1 (1pt)
B: Canada v Qatar 3-1 6-0 (1pt)
C: Scotland v Morocco 0-0 0-1 (0pts)
C: Brazil v Haiti 3-0 3-0 (3pts)
D: USA v Australia 2-2 2-0 (0pts)
D: Turkey v Paraguay 2-1 0-1 (0pts)
E: Germany v Ivory Coast 2-1 2-1 (3pts)
E: Ecuador v Curacao 3-0 0-0 (0pts)
F: Netherlands v Sweden 2-0 5-1 (1pt)
F: Tunisia v Japan 0-2 0-4 (1pt)
G: Belgium v Iran 3-0 0-0 (0pts)
G: New Zealand v Egypt 1-2 1-3 (1pt)
H: Spain v Saudi Arabia 3-0 4-0 (1pt)
H: Uruguay v Cape Verde 3-0 2-2 (0pts)
I: France v Iraq 4-0 3-0 (1pt)
I: Norway v Senegal 2-2 3-2 (0pts)
J: Argentina v Austria 2-0 2-0 (3pts)
J: Jordan v Algeria 0-1 1-2 (1pt)
K: Portugal v Uzbekistan 2-0 5-0 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Congo DR 0-0 1-0 (0pts)
L: England v Ghana 2-0 0-0 (0pts)
L: Panama v Croatia 0-1 0-1 (3pts)
Total: 5 spot-ons; 25 points.
SJ
A: Czech Rep v S Africa 2-0 1-1 (0pts)
A: Mexico v S Korea 1-1 1-0 (0pts)
B: Switzerland v Bosnia-H 2-0 4-1 (1pt)
B: Canada v Qatar 2-0 6-0 (1pt)
C: Scotland v Morocco 0-1 0-1 (3pts)
C: Brazil v Haiti 3-0 3-0 (3pts)
D: USA v Australia 2-1 2-0 (1pt)
D: Turkey v Paraguay 2-0 0-1 (0pts)
E: Germany v Ivory Coast 2-0 2-1 (1pt)
E: Ecuador v Curacao 4-0 0-0 (0pts)
F: Netherlands v Sweden 1-1 5-1 (0pts)
F: Tunisia v Japan 0-2 0-4 (1pt)
G: Belgium v Iran 1-1 0-0 (1pt)
G: New Zealand v Egypt 1-2 1-3 (1pt)
H: Spain v Saudi Arabia 4-0 4-0 (5pts)
H: Uruguay v Cape Verde 3-0 2-2 (0pts)
I: France v Iraq 5-0 3-0 (1pt)
I: Norway v Senegal 2-1 3-2 (1pt)
J: Argentina v Austria 2-0 2-0 (3pts)
J: Jordan v Algeria 1-1 1-2 (0pts)
K: Portugal v Uzbekistan 3-0 5-0 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Congo DR 2-0 1-0 (1pt)
L: England v Ghana 2-1 0-0 (0pts)
L: Panama v Croatia 0-3 0-1 (1pt)
Total: 4 spot-ons; 26 points.
Phil
A: Czech Rep v S Africa VOID
A: Mexico v S Korea 1-3 1-0 (0pts)
B: Switzerland v Bosnia-H VOID
B: Canada v Qatar 3-1 6-0 (1pt)
C: Scotland v Morocco 1-3 0-1 (1pt)
C: Brazil v Haiti 4-1 3-0 (1pt)
D: USA v Australia 3-1 2-0 (1pt)
D: Turkey v Paraguay 1-3 0-1 (1pt)
E: Germany v Ivory Coast 4-1 2-1 (1pt)
E: Ecuador v Curacao 3-2 0-0 (0pts)
F: Netherlands v Sweden 3-1 5-1 (1pt)
F: Tunisia v Japan 1-4 0-4 (1pt)
G: Belgium v Iran 3-1 0-0 (0pts)
G: New Zealand v Egypt 1-3 1-3 (3pts)
H: Spain v Saudi Arabia 3-1 4-0 (1pt)
H: Uruguay v Cape Verde 3-1 2-2 (0pts)
I: France v Iraq 6-0 3-0 (1pt)
I: Norway v Senegal 3-1 3-2 (1pt)
J: Argentina v Austria 3-1 2-0 (1pt)
J: Jordan v Algeria 1-3 1-2 (1pt)
K: Portugal v Uzbekistan 3-1 5-0 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Congo DR 3-1 1-0 (1pt)
L: England v Ghana 3-1 0-0 (0pts)
L: Panama v Croatia 1-3 0-1 (0pts)
Total: 1 spot-on; 18 points.
Adam
A: Czech Rep v S Africa VOID
A: Mexico v S Korea 1-1 1-0 (0pts)
B: Switzerland v Bosnia-H VOID
B: Canada v Qatar 2-0 6-0 (1pt)
C: Scotland v Morocco 2-0 0-1 (0pts)
C: Brazil v Haiti 3-0 3-0 (3pts)
D: USA v Australia 0-2 2-0 (0pts)
D: Turkey v Paraguay 2-0 0-1 (0pts)
E: Germany v Ivory Coast 2-1 2-1 (3pts)
E: Ecuador v Curacao 2-0 0-0 (0pts)
F: Netherlands v Sweden 2-0 5-1 (1pt)
F: Tunisia v Japan 0-2 0-4 (1pt)
G: Belgium v Iran 2-0 0-0 (0pts)
G: New Zealand v Egypt 0-1 1-3 (1pt)
H: Spain v Saudi Arabia 2-0 4-0 (1pt)
H: Uruguay v Cape Verde 2-0 2-2 (0pts)
I: France v Iraq 3-0 3-0 (3pts)
I: Norway v Senegal 3-1 3-2 (1pt)
J: Argentina v Austria 3-1 2-0 (1pt)
J: Jordan v Algeria 0-2 1-2 (1pt)
K: Portugal v Uzbekistan 2-0 5-0 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Congo DR 1-1 1-0 (0pts)
L: England v Ghana 2-1 0-0 (0pts)
L: Panama v Croatia 1-1 0-1 (0pts)
Total: 3 spot-ons; 18 points.
Nick
A: Czech Rep v S Africa VOID
A: Mexico v S Korea 2-2 1-0 (0pts)
B: Switzerland v Bosnia-H VOID
B: Canada v Qatar 3-0 6-0 (1pt)
C: Scotland v Morocco 1-2 0-1 (1pt)
C: Brazil v Haiti 2-0 3-0 (1pt)
D: USA v Australia 2-2 2-0 (0pts)
D: Turkey v Paraguay 2-0 0-1 (0pts)
E: Germany v Ivory Coast 2-2 2-1 (0pts)
E: Ecuador v Curacao 2-0 0-0 (0pts)
F: Netherlands v Sweden 1-1 5-1 (0pts)
F: Tunisia v Japan 1-2 0-4 (1pt)
G: Belgium v Iran 1-1 0-0 (1pt)
G: New Zealand v Egypt 0-1 1-3 (1pt)
H: Spain v Saudi Arabia 3-0 4-0 (1pt)
H: Uruguay v Cape Verde 2-0 2-2 (0pts)
I: France v Iraq 4-0 3-0 (1pt)
I: Norway v Senegal 2-1 3-2 (1pt)
J: Argentina v Austria 0-0 2-0 (0pts)
J: Jordan v Algeria 0-1 1-2 (1pt)
K: Portugal v Uzbekistan 2-0 5-0 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Congo DR 2-0 1-0 (1pt)
L: England v Ghana 3-0 0-0 (0pts)
L: Panama v Croatia 1-2 0-1 (1pt)
Total: 0 spot-ons; 13 points.
Dave
A: Czech Rep v S Africa VOID
A: Mexico v S Korea VOID
B: Switzerland v Bosnia-H VOID
B: Canada v Qatar VOID
C: Scotland v Morocco VOID
C: Brazil v Haiti VOID
D: USA v Australia VOID
D: Turkey v Paraguay VOID
E: Germany v Ivory Coast 2-3 2-1 (0pts)
E: Ecuador v Curacao 2-2 0-0 (1pt)
F: Netherlands v Sweden 4-2 5-1 (1pt)
F: Tunisia v Japan 0-3 0-4 (1pt)
G: Belgium v Iran 4-0 0-0 (0pts)
G: New Zealand v Egypt 1-3 1-3 (3pts)
H: Spain v Saudi Arabia 4-0 4-0 (5pts)
H: Uruguay v Cape Verde 2-0 2-2 (0pts)
I: France v Iraq 6-0 3-0 (1pt)
I: Norway v Senegal 3-3 3-2 (0pts)
J: Argentina v Austria 4-0 2-0 (1pt)
J: Jordan v Algeria 1-1 1-2 (0pts)
K: Portugal v Uzbekistan 2-0 5-0 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Congo DR VOID
L: England v Ghana VOID
L: Panama v Croatia VOID
Total: 2 spot-ons; 14 points.
Danny
A: Czech Rep v S Africa 1-0 1-1 (0pts)
A: Mexico v S Korea 1-1 1-0 (0pts)
B: Switzerland v Bosnia-H 2-0 4-1 (1pt)
B: Canada v Qatar 2-0 6-0 (1pt)
C: Scotland v Morocco 0-2 0-1 (1pt)
C: Brazil v Haiti 4-0 3-0 (1pt)
D: USA v Australia 2-0 2-0 (3pts)
D: Turkey v Paraguay 1-0 0-1 (0pts)
E: Germany v Ivory Coast 3-1 2-1 (1pt)
E: Ecuador v Curacao 2-0 0-0 (0pts)
F: Netherlands v Sweden 1-1 5-1 (0pts)
F: Tunisia v Japan 0-2 0-4 (1pt)
G: Belgium v Iran 3-1 0-0 (0pts)
G: New Zealand v Egypt 0-1 1-3 (1pt)
H: Spain v Saudi Arabia 3-0 4-0 (1pt)
H: Uruguay v Cape Verde 1-0 2-2 (0pts)
I: France v Iraq 5-0 3-0 (1pt)
I: Norway v Senegal 1-1 3-2 (0pts)
J: Argentina v Austria 3-1 2-0 (1pt)
J: Jordan v Algeria 0-1 1-2 (1pt)
K: Portugal v Uzbekistan 2-0 5-0 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Congo DR 2-1 1-0 (1pt)
L: England v Ghana 2-0 0-0 (0pts)
L: Panama v Croatia 0-2 0-1 (1pt)
Total: 1 spot-on; 17 points.
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