Monday, July 20, 2026

World Cup Predictio: Final

Greetings amigos,

The final two games of the tournament produced low scores as no one predicted England's late flurry in the most pointless game of the tournament, and everyone expected Spain to only need 90 minutes to dispense with Argentina's brand of anti-football. As a result, the table remains largely unchanged and as expected, Mr Stewart-Jones lifted the Predictio World Cup for the third time in his glittering career, adding the 2026 trophy alongside the two he won in 2010 and 2014. It's the 12th major trophy that SJ has won, and it completes a calendar year clean sweep following his domestic double. May I be the first to say a massive congratulations on a fantastic performance - it is clear that the rest of us need to raise our levels if we're to stop SJ's momentum in 2026-27. An honourable mention to Mr O'Callaghan, who led the race in the earlier stages of the tournament and finished in the runner-up spot. Thank you to all managers for your participation in the tournament.

Any mistakes let me know. Predictio XXIII gets underway on 21st August.

Take it easy,

Danny

PredictioBot tournament report cards:

World Cup 2026 Prediction League Report Cards

SJ (1st) — A+

Final Position: 1st
Points: 124
Spot-ons: 14
Penalty Bonuses: 9 (27 points)

What went well

Mastered the knockout stages better than anyone else.
Read extra-time and penalty scenarios superbly, earning the most penalty bonus points.
Maintained a place at or near the top throughout the tournament.
Struck an excellent balance between backing likely outcomes and chasing exact scores.

Areas for improvement

Adam finished with one more exact score prediction.
A few more spot-ons during the group stage could have made the title even more emphatic.

Signature strength

Knockout nous

Tournament summary

The deserved champion. SJ combined consistency with outstanding knockout predictions to pull away when it mattered most.

Adam (2nd) — A

Final Position: 2nd
Points: 111
Spot-ons: 15 (Tournament Best)
Penalty Bonuses: 5

What went well

Led the tournament in exact score predictions.
Consistently produced high-scoring rounds.
Rarely had an off day throughout the competition.

Areas for improvement

Penalty predictions proved to be the difference.
Just a couple more successful knockout bonus calls would have made the title race much tighter.

Signature strength

Clinical accuracy

Tournament summary

The best pure score predictor in the competition. Ultimately denied by the extra dimension introduced in the knockout rounds.

Danny (3rd) — A-

Final Position: 3rd
Points: 106
Spot-ons: 11
Penalty Bonuses: 6

What went well

Timed his run perfectly with a strong second half of the tournament.
Stayed patient and climbed the leaderboard steadily.
Finished on the podium despite fierce competition.

Areas for improvement

Could have converted a few more close predictions into spot-ons during the group stage.
Needed one or two exceptional rounds to challenge the top two.

Signature strength

Strong finisher

Tournament summary

Quietly one of the tournament's best performers after the group stage, earning a well-deserved third place.

4th Ben — B+

Final Position: 4th
Points: 103
Spot-ons: 12
Penalty Bonuses: 7

What went well

Outstanding knockout-stage predictor.
Second only to SJ for successful penalty bonuses.
Stayed within touching distance of the podium until the very end.

Areas for improvement

A slightly stronger group stage would have left less ground to make up.
Just missed out on the consistency shown by the top three.

Signature strength

Knockout specialist

Tournament summary

One of the tournament's most dangerous competitors once the elimination rounds began.

=5 Theo L — B

Final Position: =5th
Points: 98
Spot-ons: 11
Penalty Bonuses: 4

What went well

Dependably consistent throughout the tournament.
Rarely suffered a poor round.
Stayed in the top half from start to finish.

Areas for improvement

Needed a few more standout performances.
More exact scores would have turned a good tournament into a great one.

Signature strength

Reliability

Tournament summary

A steady performer throughout who was never far away from the leading pack.

=5 Phil — B

Final Position: =5th
Points: 98
Spot-ons: 9
Penalty Bonuses: 4

What went well

Extracted plenty of points from correct outcomes even without many exact scores.
Stayed competitive throughout.
Matched Theo L on points despite two fewer spot-ons.

Areas for improvement

Increasing the number of exact score predictions would make him a genuine title contender.

Signature strength

Efficient scoring

Tournament summary

Showed that consistently getting the outcome right can keep you firmly in contention.

7th Theo W — C+

Final Position: 7th
Points: 92
Spot-ons: 11
Penalty Bonuses: 4

What went well

Matched Theo L for spot-ons.
Produced several excellent individual rounds.
Demonstrated the ability to compete with the leaders.

Areas for improvement

Consistency was the missing ingredient.
Too many average rounds prevented a sustained challenge.

Signature strength

High ceiling

Tournament summary

On his day, capable of matching anyone—but never quite found the sustained momentum needed.

8th Nick — C+

Final Position: 8th
Points: 84
Spot-ons: 10
Penalty Bonuses: 4

What went well

Submitted predictions for every round and stayed committed throughout.
Recorded a respectable 10 exact scores.
Showed flashes of excellent judgement, particularly in the knockout rounds.

Areas for improvement

Needed more consistency in turning correct outcomes into exact scores.
A few more big rounds would have lifted him into the crowded battle for the top half.

Signature strength

Persistence

Tournament summary

The finishing position perhaps doesn't tell the whole story. Nick stayed engaged throughout the tournament, but too many near misses meant the points never quite accumulated quickly enough.

9th Dave — D

Final Position: 9th
Points: 44
Spot-ons: 3
Penalty Bonuses: 0

What went well

Made a promising enough start to suggest there was potential.
Picked up a handful of exact scores before falling behind.

Areas for improvement

Withdrew from the competition midway through, making it impossible to keep pace with the rest of the field.
Greater commitment over the full tournament would have given a much fairer reflection of his prediction ability.

Signature strength

Early promise

Tournament summary

Dave's final position is largely explained by the fact that he stopped submitting predictions midway through the tournament. Had he continued, the battle in the lower half of the table would almost certainly have been much closer.

End-of-Tournament Awards

Award	Winner	Why
Champion	SJ	Highest overall score (124)
Golden Predictor	Adam	Most exact score predictions (15)
Knockout King	SJ	Tournament-leading 9 successful penalty bonuses
Best Finish	Danny	Timed his strongest performances to secure third place
Mr Consistent	Theo L	Rarely produced a poor round
Knockout Specialist	Ben	Seven successful penalty bonuses kept him in podium contention
Most Efficient	Phil	Matched Theo L's points despite fewer exact scores
Highest Ceiling	Theo W	Produced several rounds that rivalled the leaders
Commitment Award	Nick	Submitted predictions for every round and battled until the finish
Unfulfilled Potential	Dave	A mid-tournament exit prevented a fuller assessment of what he might have achieved

SJ

France v England 3-1 4-6 (0pts)
Spain v Argentina 4-0 0-0 (0pts)

Total: 0 spot-ons; 0 points.
Pens Bonus: 6 points.

Adam

France v England 4-0 4-6 (0pts)
Spain v Argentina 2-0 0-0 (0pts)

Total: 0 spot-ons; 0 points.
Pens Bonus: 6 points.

Nick

France v England 2-2 Pens 4-6 (0pts)
Spain v Argentina 3-0 0-0 (0pts)

Total: 0 spot-ons; 0 points.
Pens Bonus: 3 points.

Ben

France v England 3-2 4-6 (0pts)
Spain v Argentina 3-1 0-0 (0pts)

Total: 0 spot-ons; 0 points.
Pens Bonus: 6 points.

Danny

France v England 3-1 4-6 (0pts)
Spain v Argentina 2-1 0-0 (0pts)

Total: 0 spot-ons; 0 points.
Pens Bonus: 6 points.

World Cup Predictio: Semi-Finals

Greetings amigos,

As the dust settles on the semi-finals and eyes focus on who will lift the World Cup on Sunday between two well-matched teams, the winner of World Cup Predictio looks to be something of a foregone conclusion. Mr Stewart-Jones continued his highly impressive form as he top scored with 9 points to increase his lead at the top of the table to 13 points. With only 16 points left in the competition to play for, it would take a quite remarkable turn of events to deny SJ his third World Cup. Elsewhere all scoring came via penalties-related predictions, as managers misplaced their faith in the French and the English: Mr Luke, Mr Crinnion, Mr West, Mr Raistrick, Mr Moore and myself all scored 6, whilst Mr O'Callaghan scored 3.

Any mistakes let me know, fixtures to follow.

Take it easy,

Danny

PredictioBot musings:

Can anyone stop SJ?

Based on the tournament so far, no. This is because:

SJ has scored in every knockout round and has been the strongest predictor overall.
Getting 4 points from two matches is extremely achievable (for example, one correct outcome plus one penalties bonus).

I'd estimate the championship odds at approximately:

SJ: 92–95%
Adam: 5–8%

The title isn't mathematically over, but SJ has reached the point where he controls his own destiny. If he has even an average final round, Adam almost certainly won't be able to catch him.

Adam

France v Spain 1-1 Pens 0-2 (0pts)
England v Argentina 2-1 1-2 (0pts)

Total: 0 spot-ons; 0 points.
Pens Bonus: 3 points.

Theo L

France v Spain 3-1 0-2 (0pts)
England v Argentina 4-2 1-2 (0pts)

Total: 0 spot-ons; 0 points.
Pens Bonus: 6 points.

Nick

France v Spain 3-2 0-2 (0pts)
England v Argentina 2-0 1-2 (0pts)

Total: 0 spot-ons; 0 points.
Pens Bonus: 6 points.

SJ

France v Spain 1-0 0-2 (0pts)
England v Argentina 1-2 1-2 (3pts)

Total: 1 spot-on; 3 points.
Pens Bonus: 6 points.

Theo W

France v Spain 1-1 0-2 (0pts)
England v Argentina 3-2 1-2 (0pts)

Total: 0 spot-ons; 0 points.
Pens Bonus: 6 points.

Ben

France v Spain 3-1 0-2 (0pts)
England v Argentina 2-2 1-2 (0pts)

Total: 0 spot-ons; 0 points.
Pens Bonus: 6 points.

Phil

France v Spain 3-1 0-2 (0pts)
England v Argentina 3-1 1-2 (0pts)

Total: 0 spot-ons; 0 points.
Pens Bonus: 6 points.

Danny

France v Spain 1-1 0-2 (0pts)
England v Argentina 2-2 1-2 (0pts)

Total: 0 spot-ons; 0 points.
Pens Bonus: 6 points.

World Cup Predictio: Quarter-Finals

Greetings amigos,

As the World Cup has four remaining teams who can lift the trophy, the Predictio World Cup looks to have only one winner. Mr Stewart-Jones' dominance of the game looks to continue in the international arena, as he had an astonishingly impressive round in the quarter-finals. SJ notched 2 spot-ons and correctly predicted that none of the games would go to penalties, which secured a huge 14 points and opened up what must surely be an unassailable 7 point advantage with just 4 games of the tournament to go. Stranger things have happened, but Mr O'Callaghan (who scored 4 points this time around) looks to be the only manager who could topple our current leader, and it would take a truly remarkable last effort to achieve such a feat. Elsewhere Mr Luke scored 8, Mr Moore 7, Mr West 6, Mr Raistrick and Mr Crinnion 4, and I scored 2.

Any mistakes let me know, fixtures sent earlier today.

Take it easy,

Danny

PredictioBot musings:

Win probability: SJ (68%), Adam (24%), Danny (3%), Phil (2%), Theo L (2%), Ben (>1%), Theo W (>1%), Nick (0%), Dave (0%)

Key talking points

SJ has completely flipped the tournament. A superb quarter-final round (14 points) turns a three-point deficit into a seven-point lead over Adam.
Adam had his quietest knockout round and now has work to do over the final four matches.
Danny's bold strategy didn't pay off. He only gained two points and has fallen 15 points behind the leader, making the title a very difficult proposition.
Phil and Theo L are tied on 92 points, but both are now 17 points adrift with only the semi-finals, third-place play-off and final remaining.
Barring something extraordinary, the championship is now realistically between SJ and Adam, with everyone else needing an exceptional finish and significant mistakes from the top two.

Theo L

France v Morocco 3-2 2-0 (1pt)
Spain v Belgium 2-0 2-1 (1pt)
Norway v England 1-2 1-1 (0pts)
Argentina v Switzerland 2-1 1-1 (0pts)

Total: 0 spot-ons; 2 points.
Pens Bonus: 6 points.

Adam

France v Morocco 2-2 Pens 2-0 (0pts)
Spain v Belgium 2-0 2-1 (1pt)
Norway v England 1-2 1-1 (0pts)
Argentina v Switzerland 2-0 1-1 (0pts)

Total: 0 spot-ons; 1 point.
Pens Bonus: 3 points.

Ben

France v Morocco 3-1 2-0 (1pt)
Spain v Belgium 0-0 Pens 2-1 (0pts)
Norway v England 1-2 1-1 (0pts)
Argentina v Switzerland 2-1 1-1 (0pts)

Total: 0 spot-ons; 1 point.
Pens Bonus: 3 points.

Nick

France v Morocco 2-2 Pens 2-0 (0pts)
Spain v Belgium 3-0 2-1 (1pt)
Norway v England 1-3 1-1 (0pts)
Argentina v Switzerland 0-1 1-1 (0pts)

Total: 0 spot-ons; 1 point.
Pens Bonus: 3 points.

SJ

France v Morocco 3-1 2-0 (1pt)
Spain v Belgium 2-0 2-1 (1pt)
Norway v England 1-1 1-1 (3pts)
Argentina v Switzerland 1-1 1-1 (3pts)

Total: 2 spot-ons; 8 points.
Pens Bonus: 6 points.

Theo W

France v Morocco Void
Spain v Belgium 2-2 2-1 (0pts)
Norway v England 0-2 1-1 (0pts)
Argentina v Switzerland 1-1 Pens 1-1 (3pts)

Total: 1 spot-on; 3 points.
Pens Bonus: 3 points.

Phil

France v Morocco Void
Spain v Belgium 3-1 2-1 (1pt)
Norway v England 1-3 1-1 (0pts)
Argentina v Switzerland 3-1 1-1 (0pts)

Total: 0 spot-ons; 1 point.
Pens Bonus: 6 points.

Danny

France v Morocco 2-1 Pens 2-0 (1pt)
Spain v Belgium 1-0 2-1 (1pt)
Norway v England 1-3 1-1 (0pts)
Argentina v Switzerland 1-0 Pens 1-1 (0pts)

Total: 0 spot-ons; 2 points.
Pens Bonus: 0 points.

World Cup Predictio: Round of 16

Greetings amigos,

In tournament format Predictio a single game can often prove pivotal, and so it was this time around. The final game of the round of 16, a 0-0 draw that culminated in penalties between Switzerland and Colombia produced an 8 point return for Mr O'Callghan and myself amongst our respective 15 and 14 point hauls, which has put Adam firmly in the driving seat with a 3 point advantage at the top of the standings, and given myself an outside shot of making a late charge. Mr Stewart-Jones kept himself very much in the running by securing a maximum of 6 pens bonus points by correctly calling that the game would be the only one in the round requiring spot kicks, which handily doubled his tally from the round to 12 points. A special mention to Mr Luke who correctly called England's 3-2 win over Mexico - without doubt the most champagne spot-on of the tournament. To complete the picture, Mr Raistrick scored 8, Mr Crinnion and Mr West scored 6 apiece, and Mr Moore 3.

Quarter-Final fixtures sent earlier today. Any mistakes, let me know.

Take it easy,

Danny

Here are the latest musings from PredictioBot...

Win probability: Adam (44%), SJ (28%), Danny (14%), Ben (6%), Phil (4%), Theo L (2%), Theo W (1%), Nick ( <1% ), Dave (<1%)

Who has momentum?

Adam

Adam has firmly established himself as the player to beat. After the Round of 32, he was merely hanging on to the lead. This round, he outscored every direct rival except Danny and has:

Increased his lead from a tie on points to a three-point cushion.
Extended his tournament-best spot-on tally to 15.
Continued to combine consistency with regular exact scores.

He's entering the closing stages in the strongest position of anyone.

Danny

Danny is the form player of the knockout rounds.

Since the group stage:

29 points in Round 3.
19 points in the Round of 32.
14 points in this round.

He's climbed from the lower half of the standings into third and is now only six points off the lead. His knack for calling penalty shootouts has also been a differentiator.

If anyone is capable of making a late charge, it's Danny.

SJ

SJ remains firmly in contention.

He didn't have a spectacular round overall, but his correctly called 0-0 penalty shootout kept him in touch. Three points behind with eight matches left is a very manageable gap.

The dark horse

Danny

Danny keeps this title.

Six points is a meaningful deficit, but it's well within reach over eight matches. He's also shown the highest ceiling of anyone in the knockout phase, with multiple high-scoring rounds and good instincts for knockout football.

If Adam or SJ have one poor round, Danny is perfectly placed to capitalise.

Who has let themselves down?

Phil

Phil is the biggest disappointment of this round. He entered it just one point off the lead and with a genuine chance of taking control of the competition. Instead, he managed only 3 points, the lowest score of any active contender. That's a huge swing at this stage of the tournament.

Ben

Ben hasn't had a disastrous round, but after his brilliant Round of 32 (24 points added), this was a missed opportunity. Scoring only 8 points while the leaders continued to accumulate means he's now 11 points back.

Ben

Canada v Morocco 1-2 0-3 (1pt)
Paraguay v France 1-3 0-1 (1pt)
Brazil v Norway 2-1 1-2 (0pts)
Mexico v England 2-2 2-3 (0pts)
Portugal v Spain 1-2 0-1 (1pt)
USA v Belgium 2-2 Pens 1-4 (0pts)
Argentina v Egypt 2-1 3-2 (1pt)
Switzerland v Colombia 1-1 Pens 0-0 (1pt + 3pts)

Total: 0 spot-ons; 5 points.
Pens Bonus: 3 points.

Nick

Canada v Morocco 2-3 0-3 (1pt)
Paraguay v France 0-3 0-1 (1pt)
Brazil v Norway 1-1 Pens 1-2 (0pts)
Mexico v England 1-2 2-3 (1pt)
Portugal v Spain 0-2 0-1 (1pt)
USA v Belgium 2-1 1-4 (0pts)
Argentina v Egypt 2-1 3-2 (1pt)
Switzerland v Colombia 1-1 0-0 (1pt)

Total: 0 spot-ons; 6 points.
Pens Bonus: 0 points.

Adam

Canada v Morocco 1-2 0-3 (1pt)
Paraguay v France 0-2 0-1 (1pt)
Brazil v Norway 3-1 1-2 (0pts)
Mexico v England 1-2 2-3 (1pt)
Portugal v Spain 0-1 0-1 (3pts)
USA v Belgium 1-1 Pens 1-4 (0pts)
Argentina v Egypt 2-1 3-2 (1pt)
Switzerland v Colombia 0-0 Pens 0-0 (5pts + 3pts)

Total: 2 spot-ons; 12 points.
Pens Bonus: 3 points.

SJ

Canada v Morocco 0-2 0-3 (1pt)
Paraguay v France 0-3 0-1 (1pt)
Brazil v Norway 1-1 1-2 (0pts)
Mexico v England 2-1 2-3 (0pts)
Portugal v Spain 0-2 0-1 (1pt)
USA v Belgium 0-2 1-4 (1pt)
Argentina v Egypt 2-0 3-2 (1pt)
Switzerland v Colombia 1-1 Pens 0-0 (1pt + 6pts)

Total: 0 spot-ons; 6 points.
Pens Bonus: 6 points.

Theo L

Canada v Morocco 0-2 0-3 (1pt)
Paraguay v France 0-3 0-1 (1pt)
Brazil v Norway 1-1 Pens 1-2 (0pts)
Mexico v England 2-3 2-3 (5pts)
Portugal v Spain 0-2 0-1 (1pt)
USA v Belgium 1-2 1-4 (1pt)
Argentina v Egypt 0-0 Pens 3-2 (0pts)
Switzerland v Colombia 1-2 0-0 (0pts)

Total: 1 spot-on; 9 points.
Pens Bonus: 0 points.

Theo W

Canada v Morocco 1-1 0-3 (0pts)
Paraguay v France 0-3 0-1 (1pt)
Brazil v Norway 1-2 1-2 (3pts)
Mexico v England 1-1 Pens 2-3 (0pts)
Portugal v Spain 1-2 0-1 (1pt)
USA v Belgium 2-1 1-4 (0pts)
Argentina v Egypt 2-0 3-2 (1pt)
Switzerland v Colombia 0-2 0-0 (0pts)

Total: 1 spot-on; 6 points.
Pens Bonus: 0 points.

Phil

Canada v Morocco 2-1 0-3 (0pts)
Paraguay v France 1-3 0-1 (1pt)
Brazil v Norway 3-1 1-2 (0pts)
Mexico v England 3-1 2-3 (0pts)
Portugal v Spain 1-3 0-1 (1pt)
USA v Belgium 2-1 1-4 (0pts)
Argentina v Egypt 3-1 3-2 (1pt)
Switzerland v Colombia 1-3 0-0 (0pts)

Total: 0 spot-ons; 3 points.
Pens Bonus: 0 points.

Danny

Canada v Morocco 1-2 0-3 (1pt)
Paraguay v France 1-3 0-1 (1pt)
Brazil v Norway 2-2 1-2 (0pts)
Mexico v England 1-1 2-3 (0pts)
Portugal v Spain 0-1 0-1 (3pts)
USA v Belgium 1-1 Pens 1-4 (0pts)
Argentina v Egypt 2-0 3-2 (1pt)
Switzerland v Colombia 0-0 Pens 0-0 (5pts + 3pts)

Total: 2 spot-ons; 11 points.
Pens Bonus: 3 points.

World Cup Predictio: Round of 32

Greetings amigos,

With the leading trio threatening to have everything their own way during the tournament, the chasing pack had to respond. And respond they did, as Mr Moore (15), Mr Stewart-Jones (14) and Mr O'Callaghan (13) were the three lowest scoring managers in the round of 32, such was the uptick in form of those behind them in the overall standings. Mr Raistrick was the outstanding performer, as he added a huge 24 points to his tally to jump to 4th in the table and just 4 points off the lead. The other manager to break the 20 barrier was Mr West, which breathed life into his campaign and a similar performance in the last 16 could see him challenge the leaders down the final stretch. To complete the picture, I scored 19, whilst Mr Luke and Mr Crinnion scored 16 apiece.

Last 16 fixtures sent earlier today. Any mistakes, let me know.

Take it easy,

Danny

PredictioBot has the following to say about how things are likely to go from here:

Win probability: Adam (28%), SJ (25%), Phil (21%), Ben (15%), Danny (6%), Theo L (3%), Theo W (1%), Nick (1%), Dave (<1%)

Adam (28%) — Still favourite... but only just

Adam remains the narrow favourite because he's:

Joint leader.
Tournament leader in spot-ons (13).
Been remarkably consistent throughout.

What's changed is that his advantage has almost disappeared. He scored a perfectly respectable knockout round, but others around him scored more heavily.

Verdict: Still the man to beat, but no longer has any breathing room.

SJ (25%) — The statistical challenger

SJ is in almost exactly the same position as Adam.

He's level on points, only two spot-ons behind and continues to find exact scores even when not having spectacular rounds.

If these two continue performing as they have all tournament, they're likely to be separated by only a point or two at the finish.

Phil (21%) — Lurking ominously

Phil is exactly where you'd want to be.

Only one point off the lead, without needing to take unnecessary risks.

He hasn't dominated any round, but he hasn't had a bad one either.

One strong quarter-final or semi-final could easily put him top.

Momentum player: Ben

Ben has quietly produced arguably the tournament's best knockout start:

24 points from the Round of 32.
Five exact scores.
Correct penalties prediction.
Jumped from sixth to fourth.

He's only four points off the lead now.

Momentum matters because confidence often translates into sticking with your instincts instead of chasing unlikely results.

If anyone is most likely to break into the top three, it's Ben.

Danny

Danny remains dangerous.

He keeps producing high-scoring rounds and has a successful penalty prediction already in the tournament.

Five points is absolutely recoverable.

His challenge is consistency - his lows have been lower than the four players above him.

Theo L

Eight behind isn't impossible.

However, Theo L has been consistently good rather than explosive.

At this stage he probably needs one exceptional round to get back into the championship conversation.

Theo W

Nine back with only sixteen matches left is becoming difficult.

The void fixture didn't help.

Still capable of climbing several places, but the title would now require an outstanding finish.

Nick

Eighteen points behind.

He actually has ten spot-ons, showing his predictions are often close, but he's lacked the big scoring rounds needed to keep pace.

Dave

Needs a miracle.

Mathematically possible.

Realistically not.

Championship outlook

This has become a fascinating contest. After three rounds it looked like a three-player race between Adam, SJ and Phil. Ben's outstanding Round of 32 has transformed it into a genuine four-way battle, with Danny still close enough to punish any slip-ups.

If I had to group the field:

Clear favourites (89% combined): Adam, SJ, Phil, Ben.
Outside contenders (10% combined): Danny, Theo L, Theo W.
Need a miracle (1% combined): Nick, Dave.

The tournament is entering the stage where a single bold prediction - particularly an unexpected upset or correctly calling a penalty shootout - could be worth six or more points relative to the field. That makes the next round potentially decisive.

Theo L

South Africa v Canada 1-2 0-1 (1pt)
Brazil v Japan 3-1 2-1 (1pt)
Germany v Paraguay 3-0 1-1 (0pts)
Netherlands v Morocco 2-1 1-1 (0pts)
Ivory Coast v Norway 1-2 1-2 (3pts)
France v Sweden 3-0 3-0 (3pts)
Mexico v Ecuador 2-1 2-0 (1pt)
England v DR Congo 2-0 2-1 (1pt)
Belgium v Senegal 2-1 2-2 (0pts)
USA v Bosnia-H 3-1 2-0 (1pt)
Spain v Austria 2-0 3-0 (1pt)
Portugal v Croatia 1-1 Pens 2-1 (0pts)
Switzerland v Algeria 2-0 2-0 (3pts)
Australia v Egypt 2-1 1-1 (0pts)
Argentina v Cape Verde 4-0 1-1 (0pts)
Colombia v Ghana 2-1 1-0 (1pt)

Total: 3 spot-ons; 16 points.
Pens Bonus: 0 points.

Phil

South Africa v Canada 1-2 0-1 (1pt)
Brazil v Japan 3-1 2-1 (1pt)
Germany v Paraguay 3–1 1-1 (0pts)
Netherlands v Morocco 3-1 1-1 (0pts)
Ivory Coast v Norway 1-3 1-2 (1pt)
France v Sweden 3-1 3-0 (1pt)
Mexico v Ecuador 3-1  2-0 (1pt)
England v DR Congo 3-1 2-1 (1pt)
Belgium v Senegal 3-1 2-2 (0pts)
USA v Bosnia-H 2-1 2-0 (1pt)
Spain v Austria 3-1 3-0 (1pt)
Portugal v Croatia 2-1 2-1 (3pts)
Switzerland v Algeria 2-1 2-0 (1pt)
Australia v Egypt 1-1 1-1 (3pts)
Argentina v Cape Verde 3-1 1-1 (0pts)
Colombia v Ghana 1-2 1-0 (0pts)

Total: 2 spot-ons; 15 points.
Pens Bonus: 0 points.

Ben

South Africa v Canada 1-2 0-1 (1pt)
Brazil v Japan 2-1 2-1 (3pts)
Germany v Paraguay 3-1 1-1 (0pts)
Netherlands v Morocco 2-1 1-1 (0pts)
Ivory Coast v Norway 1-2 1-2 (3pts)
France v Sweden 3-1 3-0 (1pt)
Mexico v Ecuador 2-0  2-0 (3pts)
England v DR Congo 2-1 2-1 (3pts)
Belgium v Senegal 1-1 2-2 (1pt)
USA v Bosnia-H 2-1 2-0 (1pt)
Spain v Austria 2-0  3-0 (1pt)
Portugal v Croatia 1-1 Pens 2-1 (0pts)
Switzerland v Algeria 2-1 2-0 (1pt)
Australia v Egypt 1-1 Pens 1-1 Pens (3pts + 3pts)
Argentina v Cape Verde 3-1 1-1 (0pts)
Colombia v Ghana 2-2 Pens 1-0 (0pts)

Total: 5 spot-ons; 21 points.
Pens Bonus: 3 points.

SJ

South Africa v Canada 1-1 0-1 (0pts)
Brazil v Japan 1-1 Pens 2-1 (0pts)
Germany v Paraguay 2-0 1-1 (0pts)
Netherlands v Morocco 2-2 Pens 1-1 Pens (1pt + 3pts)
Ivory Coast v Norway 0-2 1-2 (1pt)
France v Sweden 4-1 3-0 (1pt)
Mexico v Ecuador 2-1 2-0 (1pt)
England v DR Congo 2-0 2-1 (1pt)
Belgium v Senegal 3-1 2-2 (0pts)
USA v Bosnia-H 1-1 2-0 (0pts)
Spain v Austria 2-0  3-0 (1pt)
Portugal v Croatia 2-0 2-1 (1pt)
Switzerland v Algeria 3-1 2-0 (1pt)
Australia v Egypt 0-2 1-1 (0pts)
Argentina v Cape Verde 4-0 1-1 (0pts)
Colombia v Ghana 1-0 1-0 (3pts)

Total: 1 spot-on; 11 points.
Pens Bonus: 3 points.

Nick

South Africa v Canada 1-2 0-1 (1pt)
Brazil v Japan 3-2 2-1 (1pt)
Germany v Paraguay 2-0 1-1 (0pts)
Netherlands v Morocco 3-2 1-1 (0pts)
Ivory Coast v Norway 0-1 1-2 (1pt)
France v Sweden 3-1 3-0 (1pt)
Mexico v Ecuador 2-0 2-0 (3pts)
England v DR Congo 2-0 2-1 (1pt)
Belgium v Senegal 0-1 2-2 (0pts)
USA v Bosnia-H 2-0 2-0 (3pts)
Spain v Austria 2-0  3-0 (1pt)
Portugal v Croatia 1-1 Pens 2-1 (0pts)
Switzerland v Algeria 1-0 2-0 (1pt)
Australia v Egypt 0-2 1-1 (0pts)
Argentina v Cape Verde 1-0 1-1 (0pts)
Colombia v Ghana 1-0 1-0 (3pts)

Total: 3 spot-ons; 16 points.
Pens Bonus: 0 points.

Adam

South Africa v Canada 0-2 0-1 (1pt)
Brazil v Japan 1-1 Pens 2-1 (0pts)
Germany v Paraguay 2-0 1-1 (0pts)
Netherlands v Morocco 2-1 1-1 (0pts)
Ivory Coast v Norway 1-2 1-2 (3pts)
France v Sweden 2-0 3-0 (1pt)
Mexico v Ecuador 2-1 2-0 (1pt)
England v DR Congo 2-0 2-1 (1pt)
Belgium v Senegal 1-0 2-2 (0pts)
USA v Bosnia-H 1-0 2-0 (1pt)
Spain v Austria 2-0  3-0 (1pt)
Portugal v Croatia 2-0 2-1 (1pt)
Switzerland v Algeria 1-2 2-0 (0pts)
Australia v Egypt 0-2 1-1 (0pts)
Argentina v Cape Verde 3-0 1-1 (0pts)
Colombia v Ghana 1-0 1-0 (3pts)

Total: 2 spot-ons; 13 points.
Pens Bonus: 0 points.

Theo W

South Africa v Canada Void
Brazil v Japan 2-1 2-1 (3pts)
Germany v Paraguay 3-1 1-1 (0pts)
Netherlands v Morocco 1-1 Pens 1-1 Pens (3pts + 3pts)
Ivory Coast v Norway 0-2 1-2 (1pt)
France v Sweden 4-0 3-0 (1pt)
Mexico v Ecuador 2-2 2-0 (0pts)
England v DR Congo 2-0 2-1 (1pt)
Belgium v Senegal 1-2 2-2 (0pts)
USA v Bosnia-H 2-1 2-0 (1pt)
Spain v Austria 2-0  3-0 (1pt)
Portugal v Croatia 2-0 2-1 (1pt)
Switzerland v Algeria 2-1 2-0 (1pt)
Australia v Egypt 1-1 1-1 (3pts)
Argentina v Cape Verde 3-0 1-1 (0pts)
Colombia v Ghana 2-1 1-0 (1pt)

Total: 3 spot-ons; 17 points.
Pens Bonus: 3 points.

Danny

South Africa v Canada 0-2 0-1 (1pt)
Brazil v Japan 2-0 2-1 (1pt)
Germany v Paraguay 2-0 1-1 (0pts)
Netherlands v Morocco 1-1 Pens 1-1 Pens (3pts + 3pts)
Ivory Coast v Norway 1-2 1-2 (3pts)
France v Sweden 3-0 3-0 (3pts)
Mexico v Ecuador 1-1 Pens 2-0 (0pts)
England v DR Congo 2-0 2-1 (1pt)
Belgium v Senegal 1-2 2-2 (0pts)
USA v Bosnia-H 2-1 2-0 (1pt)
Spain v Austria 2-0  3-0 (1pt)
Portugal v Croatia 1-0 2-1 (1pt)
Switzerland v Algeria 1-1 2-0 (0pts)
Australia v Egypt 0-0 1-1 (1pt)
Argentina v Cape Verde 3-0 1-1 (0pts)
Colombia v Ghana 0-0 Pens 1-0 (0pts)

Total: 3 spot-ons; 16 points.
Pens Bonus: 3 points.

Sunday, June 28, 2026

World Cup Predictio 2026: Group Stage Round 3

Greetings amigos,

The group stage is complete and we move into the knockout stages, where the jeopardy begins and the introduction of penalties wildcards carries the potential to either turbo boost or stall managers' campaigns. In terms of Round 3, I finally managed to get my tournament into gear as I top scored with 29 points including 4 spot-ons, which saw me move up into mid-table and at least within the same(ish) postcode of the front-runners. Mr Moore's steady accumulation of points continued as he scored 23 points, whilst Mr O'Callaghan and Mr Stewart-Jones (our current top two) both scored 22 points apiece. Just 3 points separate the top three managers in the overall standings. Elsewhere Mr Luke and Mr Raistrick scored 21, Mr Crinnion 18, Mr McClay 16 and Mr West 14.

Any mistakes let me know, fixtures for the last 32 were sent this morning.

Take it easy,

Danny

Spot-ons Points

Adam 11 70
SJ 10 69
Phil 7 67
Theo L 7 59
Danny 6 59
Ben 7 55
Theo W 6 54
Nick 7 49
Dave 3 44

Here are the latest musings of the P-Bot:

Win probability

Adam (34%), SJ (29%), Phil (20%), Theo L (6%), Danny (5%), Ben (3%), Theo W (2%), Nick (1%), Dave (<1%)

Why Adam remains favourite (34%)

Adam has been the strongest performer over the tournament:

Leading on points and tournament-best 11 spot-ons.
Hasn't had a poor round yet.
His predictions appear well calibrated rather than reliant on a handful of big exact scores.

A one-point lead isn't much, but over three rounds he has shown the highest underlying level.

SJ (29%)

SJ is the biggest threat. Only one point behind and only one spot-on behind Adam. If you'd only looked at Round 3, SJ actually matched Adam's scoring while continuing to accumulate exact scores. This is very close to a coin flip between the two.

Phil (20%)

Phil has quietly climbed into an excellent position. Although three points back, he's just produced an excellent third round and has demonstrated he can hit the valuable 5-point exact scores. His lower spot-on total compared with Adam and SJ makes him slightly less likely over the remaining fixtures, but he is absolutely in the title race.

Chasing pack

Theo L and Danny (11 points back) are still alive. Eleven points sounds significant, but with 32 games left it could disappear quickly if one player strings together several exact scores. Danny especially has momentum after the best Round 3 (29 points).

Ben and Theo W probably need a spectacular knockout phase to get back into contention.

Nick would likely need almost everything to go right from here.

Dave would require an extraordinary finish plus multiple collapses ahead of him.

Dark horse: Danny

Why Danny over Theo L?

Highest score of Round 3 by some distance (29 points).
Four exact scores in one round shows genuine upside.
Eleven points isn't an impossible deficit with 32 matches remaining.
If the knockout stage becomes unpredictable, Danny looks the most likely player outside the top three to capitalise.

Theo L

A: Czech Rep v Mexico 1-2 0-3 (1pt)
A: S Africa v S Korea 0-2 1-0 (0pts)
B: Bosnia-H v Qatar 1-0 3-1 (1pt)
B: Switzerland v Canada 1-0 2-1 (1pt)
C: Morocco v Haiti 3-0 4-2 (1pt)
C: Scotland v Brazil 1-2 0-3 (1pt)
D: Paraguay v Australia 1-0 0-0 (0pts)
D: Turkey v USA 1-1 3-2 (0pts)
E: Curacao v Ivory Coast 0-3 0-2 (1pt)
E: Ecuador v Germany 1-2 2-1 (0pts)
F: Japan v Sweden 1-0 1-1 (0pts)
F: Tunisia v Netherlands 0-2 1-3 (1pt)
G: Egypt v Iran 1-1 1-1 (3pts)
G: New Zealand v Belgium 0-2 1-5 (1pt)
H: Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia 1-1 0-0 (1pt)
H: Uruguay v Spain 1-1 0-1 (0pts)
I: Norway v France 1-2 1-4 (1pt)
I: Senegal v Iraq 3-0 5-0 (1pt)
J: Algeria v Austria 1-1 3-3 (1pt)
J: Jordan v Argentina 0-3 1-3 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Portugal 1-2 0-0 (0pts)
K: Congo DR v Uzbekistan 1-0 3-1 (1pt)
L: Croatia v Ghana 3-0 2-1 (1pt)
L: Panama v England 0-2 0-2 (3pts)

Total: 2 spot-ons; 21 points.

Ben

A: Czech Rep v Mexico 2-2 0-3 (0pts)
A: S Africa v S Korea 1-0 1-0 (3pts)
B: Bosnia-H v Qatar 1-1 3-1 (0pts)
B: Switzerland v Canada 2-1 2-1 (3pts)
C: Morocco v Haiti 2-0 4-2 (1pt)
C: Scotland v Brazil 1-3 0-3 (1pt)
D: Paraguay v Australia 2-1 0-0 (0pts)
D: Turkey v USA 1-2 3-2 (0pts)
E: Curacao v Ivory Coast 0-3 0-2 (1pt)
E: Ecuador v Germany 1-2 2-1 (0pts)
F: Japan v Sweden 2-2 1-1 (1pt)
F: Tunisia v Netherlands 1-2 1-3 (1pt)
G: Egypt v Iran 2-0 1-1 (0pts)
G: New Zealand v Belgium 1-2 1-5 (1pt)
H: Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia 0-1 0-0 (0pts)
H: Uruguay v Spain 1-2 0-1 (1pt)
I: Norway v France 2-3 1-4 (1pt)
I: Senegal v Iraq 3-1 5-0 (1pt)
J: Algeria v Austria 1-2 3-3 (0pts)
J: Jordan v Argentina 0-5 1-3 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Portugal 1-1 0-0 (1pt)
K: Congo DR v Uzbekistan 2-1 3-1 (3pts)
L: Croatia v Ghana 1-1 2-1 (0pts)
L: Panama v England 0-3 0-2 (1pt)

Total: 3 spot-ons; 21 points.

Theo W

A: Czech Rep v Mexico 1-1 0-3 (0pts)
A: S Africa v S Korea 0-2 1-0 (0pts)
B: Bosnia-H v Qatar 2-2 3-1 (0pts)
B: Switzerland v Canada 2-1 2-1 (3pts)
C: Morocco v Haiti 4-0 4-2 (1pt)
C: Scotland v Brazil 1-2 0-3 (1pt)
D: Paraguay v Australia 1-1 0-0 (1pt)
D: Turkey v USA 1-2 3-2 (0pts)
E: Curacao v Ivory Coast 0-3 0-2 (1pt)
E: Ecuador v Germany 1-2 2-1 (0pts)
F: Japan v Sweden 2-0 1-1 (0pts)
F: Tunisia v Netherlands 0-3 1-3 (1pt)
G: Egypt v Iran 3-1 1-1 (0pts)
G: New Zealand v Belgium 0-4 1-5 (1pt)
H: Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia 1-0 0-0 (0pts)
H: Uruguay v Spain 1-2 0-1 (1pt)
I: Norway v France 2-2 1-4 (0pts)
I: Senegal v Iraq 2-0 5-0 (1pt)
J: Algeria v Austria 0-1 3-3 (0pts)
J: Jordan v Argentina 0-1 1-3 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Portugal 2-2 0-0 (1pt)
K: Congo DR v Uzbekistan 1-1 3-1 (0pts)
L: Croatia v Ghana 0-0 2-1 (0pts)
L: Panama v England 1-3 0-2 (1pt)

Total: 1 spot-ons; 14 points.

SJ

A: Czech Rep v Mexico 1-1 0-3 (0pts)
A: S Africa v S Korea 0-2 1-0 (0pts)
B: Bosnia-H v Qatar 3-0 3-1 (1pt)
B: Switzerland v Canada 2-0 2-1 (1pt)
C: Morocco v Haiti 2-0 4-2 (1pt)
C: Scotland v Brazil 0-3 0-3 (3pts)
D: Paraguay v Australia 1-0 0-0 (0pts)
D: Turkey v USA 3-0 3-2 (1pt)
E: Curacao v Ivory Coast 0-2 0-2 (3pts)
E: Ecuador v Germany 1-1 2-1 (0pts)
F: Japan v Sweden 2-1 1-1 (0pts)
F: Tunisia v Netherlands 0-2 1-3 (1pt)
G: Egypt v Iran 2-1 1-1 (0pts)
G: New Zealand v Belgium 0-3 1-5 (1pt)
H: Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia 1-1 0-0 (1pt)
H: Uruguay v Spain 0-2 0-1 (1pt)
I: Norway v France 1-3 1-4 (1pt)
I: Senegal v Iraq 4-1 5-0 (1pt)
J: Algeria v Austria 1-1 3-3 (1pt)
J: Jordan v Argentina 0-3 1-3 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Portugal 1-3 0-0 (0pts)
K: Congo DR v Uzbekistan 1-1 3-1 (0pts)
L: Croatia v Ghana 1-0 2-1 (1pt)
L: Panama v England 0-2 0-2 (3pts)

Total: 3 spot-ons; 22 points.

Adam

A: Czech Rep v Mexico 0-1 0-3 (1pt)
A: S Africa v S Korea 0-2 1-0 (0pts)
B: Bosnia-H v Qatar 2-0 3-1 (1pt)
B: Switzerland v Canada 0-1 2-1 (0pts)
C: Morocco v Haiti 2-0 4-2 (1pt)
C: Scotland v Brazil 0-3 0-3 (3pts)
D: Paraguay v Australia 0-2 0-0 (0pts)
D: Turkey v USA 0-2 3-2 (0pts)
E: Curacao v Ivory Coast 0-2 0-2 (3pts)
E: Ecuador v Germany 0-2 2-1 (0pts)
F: Japan v Sweden 2-1 1-1 (0pts)
F: Tunisia v Netherlands 0-2 1-3 (1pt)
G: Egypt v Iran 2-1 1-1 (0pts)
G: New Zealand v Belgium 0-1 1-5 (1pt)
H: Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia 1-1 0-0 (1pt)
H: Uruguay v Spain 0-2 0-1 (1pt)
I: Norway v France 0-2 1-4 (1pt)
I: Senegal v Iraq 2-0 5-0 (1pt)
J: Algeria v Austria 1-1 3-3 (1pt)
J: Jordan v Argentina 0-3 1-3 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Portugal 0-2 0-0 (0pts)
K: Congo DR v Uzbekistan 2-0 3-1 (1pt)
L: Croatia v Ghana 1-2 2-1 (0pts)
L: Panama v England 0-2 0-2 (3pts)

Total: 3 spot-ons; 22 points.

Nick

A: Czech Rep v Mexico 0-2 0-3 (1pt)
A: S Africa v S Korea 0-2 1-0 (0pts)
B: Bosnia-H v Qatar 1-1 3-1 (0pts)
B: Switzerland v Canada 1-2 2-1 (0pts)
C: Morocco v Haiti 1-1 4-2 (0pts)
C: Scotland v Brazil 1-0 0-3 (0pts)
D: Paraguay v Australia 1-2 0-0 (0pts)
D: Turkey v USA 1-0 3-2 (1pt)
E: Curacao v Ivory Coast 1-1 0-2 (0pts)
E: Ecuador v Germany 0-2 2-1 (0pts)
F: Japan v Sweden 2-2 1-1 (1pt)
F: Tunisia v Netherlands 0-3 1-3 (1pt)
G: Egypt v Iran 1-1 1-1 (3pts)
G: New Zealand v Belgium 0-1 1-5 (1pt)
H: Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia 0-0 0-0 (5pts)
H: Uruguay v Spain 1-1 0-1 (0pts)
I: Norway v France 2-2 1-4 (0pts)
I: Senegal v Iraq 1-1 5-0 (0pts)
J: Algeria v Austria 1-1 3-3 (1pt)
J: Jordan v Argentina 0-4 1-3 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Portugal 2-2 0-0 (1pt)
K: Congo DR v Uzbekistan 1-0 3-1 (1pt)
L: Croatia v Ghana 0-0 2-1 (0pts)
L: Panama v England 0-3 0-2 (1pt)

Total: 2 spot-ons; 18 points.

Phil

A: Czech Rep v Mexico 1-3 0-3 (1pt)
A: S Africa v S Korea 1-2 1-0 (0pts)
B: Bosnia-H v Qatar 3-1 3-1 (5pts)
B: Switzerland v Canada 1-3 2-1 (0pts)
C: Morocco v Haiti 3-1 4-2 (1pt)
C: Scotland v Brazil 1-3 0-3 (1pt)
D: Paraguay v Australia 3-1 0-0 (0pts)
D: Turkey v USA 1-3 3-2 (0pts)
E: Curacao v Ivory Coast 1-3 0-2 (1pt)
E: Ecuador v Germany 1-3 2-1 (0pts)
F: Japan v Sweden 1-3 1-1 (0pts)
F: Tunisia v Netherlands 1-3 1-3 (5pts)
G: Egypt v Iran 3-1 1-1 (0pts)
G: New Zealand v Belgium 1-1 1-5 (0pts)
H: Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia 2-1 0-0 (0pts)
H: Uruguay v Spain 1-3 0-1 (1pt)
I: Norway v France 1-3 1-4 (1pt)
I: Senegal v Iraq 1-2 5-0 (0pts)
J: Algeria v Austria 1-3 3-3 (0pts)
J: Jordan v Argentina 1-4 1-3 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Portugal 1-3 0-0 (0pts)
K: Congo DR v Uzbekistan 3-1 3-1 (5pts)
L: Croatia v Ghana 1-3 2-1 (0pts)
L: Panama v England 1-3 0-2 (1pt)

Total: 3 spot-ons; 23 points.

Dave

A: Czech Rep v Mexico 2-3 0-3 (1pt)
A: S Africa v S Korea 2-2 1-0 (0pts)
B: Bosnia-H v Qatar 1-1 3-1 (0pts)
B: Switzerland v Canada 2-3 2-1 (0pts)
C: Morocco v Haiti 4-0 4-2 (1pt)
C: Scotland v Brazil 3-2 0-3 (0pts)
D: Paraguay v Australia 0-4 0-0 (0pts)
D: Turkey v USA 1-4 3-2 (0pts)
E: Curacao v Ivory Coast 1-3 0-2 (1pt)
E: Ecuador v Germany 1-3 2-1 (0pts)
F: Japan v Sweden 2-2 1-1 (1pt)
F: Tunisia v Netherlands 1-4 1-3 (1pt)
G: Egypt v Iran 3-0 1-1 (0pts)
G: New Zealand v Belgium 2-2 1-5 (0pts)
H: Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia 2-1 0-0 (0pts)
H: Uruguay v Spain 1-4 0-1 (1pt)
I: Norway v France 2-4 1-4 (1pt)
I: Senegal v Iraq 4-0 5-0 (1pt)
J: Algeria v Austria 2-2 3-3 (1pt)
J: Jordan v Argentina 1-5 1-3 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Portugal 1-2 0-0 (0pts)
K: Congo DR v Uzbekistan 3-1 3-1 (5pts)
L: Croatia v Ghana 2-2 2-1 (0pts)
L: Panama v England 1-3 0-2 (1pt)

Total: 1 spot-on; 16 points.

Danny

A: Czech Rep v Mexico 1-2 0-3 (1pt)
A: S Africa v S Korea 0-0 1-0 (0pts)
B: Bosnia-H v Qatar 2-0 3-1 (1pt)
B: Switzerland v Canada 1-1 2-1 (0pts)
C: Morocco v Haiti 3-0 4-2 (1pt)
C: Scotland v Brazil 1-3 0-3 (1pt)
D: Paraguay v Australia 0-0 0-0 (5pts)
D: Turkey v USA 0-2 3-2 (0pts)
E: Curacao v Ivory Coast 3-1 0-2 (0pts)
E: Ecuador v Germany 0-2 2-1 (0pts)
F: Japan v Sweden 2-1 1-1 (0pts)
F: Tunisia v Netherlands 0-3 1-3 (1pt)
G: Egypt v Iran 1-1 1-1 (3pts)
G: New Zealand v Belgium 0-1 1-5 (1pt)
H: Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia 0-0 0-0 (5pts)
H: Uruguay v Spain 1-2 0-1 (1pt)
I: Norway v France 1-3 1-4 (1pt)
I: Senegal v Iraq 2-0 5-0 (1pt)
J: Algeria v Austria 1-1 3-3 (1pt)
J: Jordan v Argentina 0-4 1-3 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Portugal 1-1 0-0 (1pt)
K: Congo DR v Uzbekistan 2-2 3-1 (0pts)
L: Croatia v Ghana 1-0 2-1 (1pt)
L: Panama v England 0-2 0-2 (3pts)

Total: 4 spot-ons; 29 points.

World Cup Predictio 2026: Group Stage Round 2

Greetings amigos,

Mr Stewart-Jones' quest to complete a clean sweep of both domestic and international trophies continues at pace - SJ top-scored in round 2 with 26 points to lay a marker down in the tournament. The fact he doesn't find himself top of the overall standings underlines how good a start Mr O'Callaghan has made - Adam scored impressively again, adding 24 points to his tally to top the table by 1 point. Elsewhere Mr West well and truly got his tournament going scoring 25 points, whilst Mr Luke (22) and Mr Raistrick (20) can also be very happy with their respective returns. Mr Moore fell off his early pace as he scored 18 points, whilst I was a point back on 17, Mr McClay scored 14 and Mr Crinnion 13.

Any mistakes let me (and the PredictioBot) know, 3rd round of group games get underway this evening.

Here are the latest musings of the P-Bot:

Win probability

Adam (28%), SJ (24%), Phil (15%), Theo W (11%), Theo L (8%), Ben (5%), Nick (4%), Danny (3%), Dave (2%)

Why Adam is favourite

Adam has the profile you want in a long tournament:

Leader after two rounds & highest spot-on total (8).
Strong in both rounds rather than relying on one exceptional week.
Doesn't appear to over-predict goals.
Frequently lands on realistic scorelines such as 1-0, 2-0, 1-1 and 2-1.

The biggest predictor of future success is usually exact scores rather than simple outcomes, and Adam currently leads that category.

His profile suggests he is likely to continue accumulating points steadily rather than suffering boom-and-bust swings.

Why SJ is almost level

SJ is only one point behind and has seven spot-ons.

The difference between Adam and SJ is stylistic:

Adam tends to be conservative.
SJ is slightly more aggressive and therefore a little more volatile.

That volatility can be useful over a World Cup because there are enough matches remaining to make up deficits quickly.

If SJ has another round like Round 2 (26 points), he becomes favourite.

Why Phil remains dangerous

Phil is the classic high-variance predictor.

Strengths:

Joint highest single-round score so far (26 in Round 1).
Willing to predict larger scorelines.
Often finds exact scores in high-goal matches, which are worth 5 points.

Weaknesses:

Lower spot-on rate overall (4).
Can have rounds where ambitious predictions produce lots of zeros.

If Phil wins, it'll probably be because he hits a cluster of 4-0s, 3-1s and 5-0s during the knockouts.

Dark Horse: Theo W

If I had to back one player outside the top three, it would be Theo W.

Reasons:

Outstanding Round 2 (25 points).
Five spot-ons already.
Only 8 points off the lead.
Mixes conservative and ambitious picks better than most.

Unlike Ben or Nick, Theo W is already close enough that one excellent matchday could put him on top and his trajectory is pointing upward.

Take it easy,

Danny

Spot-ons Points

Adam 8 48
SJ 7 47

Phil 4 44
Theo W 5 40

Theo L 5 38
Ben 4 34
Nick 5 31
Danny 2 30

Dave 2 28

Ben

A: Czech Rep v S Africa 2-1 1-1 (0pts)
A: Mexico v S Korea 2-1 1-0 (1pt)
B: Switzerland v Bosnia-H 1-0 4-1 (1pt)
B: Canada v Qatar 1-0 6-0 (1pt)
C: Scotland v Morocco 1-2 0-1 (1pt)
C: Brazil v Haiti 6-1 3-0 (1pt)
D: USA v Australia 2-0 2-0 (3pts)
D: Turkey v Paraguay 1-1 0-1 (0pts)
E: Germany v Ivory Coast 2-1 2-1 (3pts)
E: Ecuador v Curacao 3-1 0-0 (0pts)
F: Netherlands v Sweden 2-1 5-1 (1pt)
F: Tunisia v Japan 1-2 0-4 (1pt)
G: Belgium v Iran 3-0 0-0 (0pts)
G: New Zealand v Egypt 0-2 1-3 (1pt)
H: Spain v Saudi Arabia 3-0 4-0 (1pt)
H: Uruguay v Cape Verde 3-0 2-2 (0pts)
I: France v Iraq 4-1 3-0 (1pt)
I: Norway v Senegal 1-1 3-2 (0pts)
J: Argentina v Austria 2-1 2-0 (1pt)
J: Jordan v Algeria 0-1 1-2 (1pt)
K: Portugal v Uzbekistan 3-0 5-0 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Congo DR 2-2 1-0 (0pts)
L: England v Ghana 1-0 0-0 (0pts)
L: Panama v Croatia 0-2 0-1 (1pt)

Total: 2 spot-ons; 20 points.

Theo L

A: Czech Rep v S Africa 1-0 1-1 (0pts)
A: Mexico v S Korea 1-1 1-0 (0pts)
B: Switzerland v Bosnia-H 2-0 4-1 (1pt)
B: Canada v Qatar 3-0 6-0 (1pt)
C: Scotland v Morocco 0-2 0-1 (1pt)
C: Brazil v Haiti 4-0 3-0 (1pt)
D: USA v Australia 2-0 2-0 (3pts)
D: Turkey v Paraguay 2-1 0-1 (0pts)
E: Germany v Ivory Coast 3-0 2-1 (1pt)
E: Ecuador v Curacao 3-0 0-0 (0pts)
F: Netherlands v Sweden 3-0 5-1 (1pt)
F: Tunisia v Japan 0-2 0-4 (1pt)
G: Belgium v Iran 2-1 0-0 (0pts)
G: New Zealand v Egypt 0-1 1-3 (1pt)
H: Spain v Saudi Arabia 3-0 4-0 (1pt)
H: Uruguay v Cape Verde 2-0 2-2 (0pts)
I: France v Iraq 4-0 3-0 (1pt)
I: Norway v Senegal 1-1 3-2 (0pts)
J: Argentina v Austria 2-0 2-0 (3pts)
J: Jordan v Algeria 1-2 1-2 (3pts)
K: Portugal v Uzbekistan 4-0 5-0 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Congo DR 2-0 1-0 (1pt)
L: England v Ghana 3-0 0-0 (0pts)
L: Panama v Croatia 0-2 0-1 (1pt)

Total: 3 spot-ons; 24 points.

Theo W

A: Czech Rep v S Africa 1-1 1-1 (3pts)
A: Mexico v S Korea 2-1 1-0 (1pt)
B: Switzerland v Bosnia-H 2-0 4-1 (1pt)
B: Canada v Qatar 3-1 6-0 (1pt)
C: Scotland v Morocco 0-0 0-1 (0pts)
C: Brazil v Haiti 3-0 3-0 (3pts)
D: USA v Australia 2-2 2-0 (0pts)
D: Turkey v Paraguay 2-1 0-1 (0pts)
E: Germany v Ivory Coast 2-1 2-1 (3pts)
E: Ecuador v Curacao 3-0 0-0 (0pts)
F: Netherlands v Sweden 2-0 5-1 (1pt)
F: Tunisia v Japan 0-2 0-4 (1pt)
G: Belgium v Iran 3-0 0-0 (0pts)
G: New Zealand v Egypt 1-2 1-3 (1pt)
H: Spain v Saudi Arabia 3-0 4-0 (1pt)
H: Uruguay v Cape Verde 3-0 2-2 (0pts)
I: France v Iraq 4-0 3-0 (1pt)
I: Norway v Senegal 2-2 3-2 (0pts)
J: Argentina v Austria 2-0 2-0 (3pts)
J: Jordan v Algeria 0-1 1-2 (1pt)
K: Portugal v Uzbekistan 2-0 5-0 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Congo DR 0-0 1-0 (0pts)
L: England v Ghana 2-0 0-0 (0pts)
L: Panama v Croatia 0-1 0-1 (3pts)

Total: 5 spot-ons; 25 points.

SJ

A: Czech Rep v S Africa 2-0 1-1 (0pts)
A: Mexico v S Korea 1-1 1-0 (0pts)
B: Switzerland v Bosnia-H 2-0 4-1 (1pt)
B: Canada v Qatar 2-0 6-0 (1pt)
C: Scotland v Morocco 0-1 0-1 (3pts)
C: Brazil v Haiti 3-0 3-0 (3pts)
D: USA v Australia 2-1 2-0 (1pt)
D: Turkey v Paraguay 2-0 0-1 (0pts)
E: Germany v Ivory Coast 2-0 2-1 (1pt)
E: Ecuador v Curacao 4-0 0-0 (0pts)
F: Netherlands v Sweden 1-1 5-1 (0pts)
F: Tunisia v Japan 0-2 0-4 (1pt)
G: Belgium v Iran 1-1 0-0 (1pt)
G: New Zealand v Egypt 1-2 1-3 (1pt)
H: Spain v Saudi Arabia 4-0 4-0 (5pts)
H: Uruguay v Cape Verde 3-0 2-2 (0pts)
I: France v Iraq 5-0 3-0 (1pt)
I: Norway v Senegal 2-1 3-2 (1pt)
J: Argentina v Austria 2-0 2-0 (3pts)
J: Jordan v Algeria 1-1 1-2 (0pts)
K: Portugal v Uzbekistan 3-0 5-0 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Congo DR 2-0 1-0 (1pt)
L: England v Ghana 2-1 0-0 (0pts)
L: Panama v Croatia 0-3 0-1 (1pt)

Total: 4 spot-ons; 26 points.

Phil

A: Czech Rep v S Africa VOID
A: Mexico v S Korea 1-3 1-0 (0pts)
B: Switzerland v Bosnia-H VOID
B: Canada v Qatar 3-1 6-0 (1pt)
C: Scotland v Morocco 1-3 0-1 (1pt)
C: Brazil v Haiti 4-1 3-0 (1pt)
D: USA v Australia 3-1 2-0 (1pt)
D: Turkey v Paraguay 1-3 0-1 (1pt)
E: Germany v Ivory Coast 4-1 2-1 (1pt)
E: Ecuador v Curacao 3-2 0-0 (0pts)
F: Netherlands v Sweden 3-1 5-1 (1pt)
F: Tunisia v Japan 1-4 0-4 (1pt)
G: Belgium v Iran 3-1 0-0 (0pts)
G: New Zealand v Egypt 1-3 1-3 (3pts)
H: Spain v Saudi Arabia 3-1 4-0 (1pt)
H: Uruguay v Cape Verde 3-1 2-2 (0pts)
I: France v Iraq 6-0 3-0 (1pt)
I: Norway v Senegal 3-1 3-2 (1pt)
J: Argentina v Austria 3-1 2-0 (1pt)
J: Jordan v Algeria 1-3 1-2 (1pt)
K: Portugal v Uzbekistan 3-1 5-0 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Congo DR 3-1 1-0 (1pt)
L: England v Ghana 3-1 0-0 (0pts)
L: Panama v Croatia 1-3 0-1 (0pts)

Total: 1 spot-on; 18 points.

Adam

A: Czech Rep v S Africa VOID
A: Mexico v S Korea 1-1 1-0 (0pts)
B: Switzerland v Bosnia-H VOID
B: Canada v Qatar 2-0 6-0 (1pt)
C: Scotland v Morocco 2-0 0-1 (0pts)
C: Brazil v Haiti 3-0 3-0 (3pts)
D: USA v Australia 0-2 2-0 (0pts)
D: Turkey v Paraguay 2-0 0-1 (0pts)
E: Germany v Ivory Coast 2-1 2-1 (3pts)
E: Ecuador v Curacao 2-0 0-0 (0pts)
F: Netherlands v Sweden 2-0 5-1 (1pt)
F: Tunisia v Japan 0-2 0-4 (1pt)
G: Belgium v Iran 2-0 0-0 (0pts)
G: New Zealand v Egypt 0-1 1-3 (1pt)
H: Spain v Saudi Arabia 2-0 4-0 (1pt)
H: Uruguay v Cape Verde 2-0 2-2 (0pts)
I: France v Iraq 3-0 3-0 (3pts)
I: Norway v Senegal 3-1 3-2 (1pt)
J: Argentina v Austria 3-1 2-0 (1pt)
J: Jordan v Algeria 0-2 1-2 (1pt)
K: Portugal v Uzbekistan 2-0 5-0 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Congo DR 1-1 1-0 (0pts)
L: England v Ghana 2-1 0-0 (0pts)
L: Panama v Croatia 1-1 0-1 (0pts)

Total: 3 spot-ons; 18 points.

Nick

A: Czech Rep v S Africa VOID
A: Mexico v S Korea 2-2 1-0 (0pts)
B: Switzerland v Bosnia-H VOID
B: Canada v Qatar 3-0 6-0 (1pt)
C: Scotland v Morocco 1-2 0-1 (1pt)
C: Brazil v Haiti 2-0 3-0 (1pt)
D: USA v Australia 2-2 2-0 (0pts)
D: Turkey v Paraguay 2-0 0-1 (0pts)
E: Germany v Ivory Coast 2-2 2-1 (0pts)
E: Ecuador v Curacao 2-0 0-0 (0pts)
F: Netherlands v Sweden 1-1 5-1 (0pts)
F: Tunisia v Japan 1-2 0-4 (1pt)
G: Belgium v Iran 1-1 0-0 (1pt)
G: New Zealand v Egypt 0-1 1-3 (1pt)
H: Spain v Saudi Arabia 3-0 4-0 (1pt)
H: Uruguay v Cape Verde 2-0 2-2 (0pts)
I: France v Iraq 4-0 3-0 (1pt)
I: Norway v Senegal 2-1 3-2 (1pt)
J: Argentina v Austria 0-0 2-0 (0pts)
J: Jordan v Algeria 0-1 1-2 (1pt)
K: Portugal v Uzbekistan 2-0 5-0 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Congo DR 2-0 1-0 (1pt)
L: England v Ghana 3-0 0-0 (0pts)
L: Panama v Croatia 1-2 0-1 (1pt)

Total: 0 spot-ons; 13 points.

Dave

A: Czech Rep v S Africa VOID
A: Mexico v S Korea VOID
B: Switzerland v Bosnia-H VOID
B: Canada v Qatar VOID
C: Scotland v Morocco VOID
C: Brazil v Haiti VOID
D: USA v Australia VOID
D: Turkey v Paraguay VOID
E: Germany v Ivory Coast 2-3 2-1 (0pts)
E: Ecuador v Curacao 2-2 0-0 (1pt)
F: Netherlands v Sweden 4-2 5-1 (1pt)
F: Tunisia v Japan 0-3 0-4 (1pt)
G: Belgium v Iran 4-0 0-0 (0pts)
G: New Zealand v Egypt 1-3 1-3 (3pts)
H: Spain v Saudi Arabia 4-0 4-0 (5pts)
H: Uruguay v Cape Verde 2-0 2-2 (0pts)
I: France v Iraq 6-0 3-0 (1pt)
I: Norway v Senegal 3-3 3-2 (0pts)
J: Argentina v Austria 4-0 2-0 (1pt)
J: Jordan v Algeria 1-1 1-2 (0pts)
K: Portugal v Uzbekistan 2-0 5-0 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Congo DR VOID
L: England v Ghana VOID
L: Panama v Croatia VOID

Total: 2 spot-ons; 14 points.

Danny

A: Czech Rep v S Africa 1-0 1-1 (0pts)
A: Mexico v S Korea 1-1 1-0 (0pts)
B: Switzerland v Bosnia-H 2-0 4-1 (1pt)
B: Canada v Qatar 2-0 6-0 (1pt)
C: Scotland v Morocco 0-2 0-1 (1pt)
C: Brazil v Haiti 4-0 3-0 (1pt)
D: USA v Australia 2-0 2-0 (3pts)
D: Turkey v Paraguay 1-0 0-1 (0pts)
E: Germany v Ivory Coast 3-1 2-1 (1pt)
E: Ecuador v Curacao 2-0 0-0 (0pts)
F: Netherlands v Sweden 1-1 5-1 (0pts)
F: Tunisia v Japan 0-2 0-4 (1pt)
G: Belgium v Iran 3-1 0-0 (0pts)
G: New Zealand v Egypt 0-1 1-3 (1pt)
H: Spain v Saudi Arabia 3-0 4-0 (1pt)
H: Uruguay v Cape Verde 1-0 2-2 (0pts)
I: France v Iraq 5-0 3-0 (1pt)
I: Norway v Senegal 1-1 3-2 (0pts)
J: Argentina v Austria 3-1 2-0 (1pt)
J: Jordan v Algeria 0-1 1-2 (1pt)
K: Portugal v Uzbekistan 2-0 5-0 (1pt)
K: Colombia v Congo DR 2-1 1-0 (1pt)
L: England v Ghana 2-0 0-0 (0pts)
L: Panama v Croatia 0-2 0-1 (1pt)

Total: 1 spot-on; 17 points.

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