World Cup Predictio: Round of 16

Greetings amigos,

In tournament format Predictio a single game can often prove pivotal, and so it was this time around. The final game of the round of 16, a 0-0 draw that culminated in penalties between Switzerland and Colombia produced an 8 point return for Mr O'Callghan and myself amongst our respective 15 and 14 point hauls, which has put Adam firmly in the driving seat with a 3 point advantage at the top of the standings, and given myself an outside shot of making a late charge. Mr Stewart-Jones kept himself very much in the running by securing a maximum of 6 pens bonus points by correctly calling that the game would be the only one in the round requiring spot kicks, which handily doubled his tally from the round to 12 points. A special mention to Mr Luke who correctly called England's 3-2 win over Mexico - without doubt the most champagne spot-on of the tournament. To complete the picture, Mr Raistrick scored 8, Mr Crinnion and Mr West scored 6 apiece, and Mr Moore 3.

Quarter-Final fixtures sent earlier today. Any mistakes, let me know.

Take it easy,

Danny

Here are the latest musings from PredictioBot...

Win probability: Adam (44%), SJ (28%), Danny (14%), Ben (6%), Phil (4%), Theo L (2%), Theo W (1%), Nick ( <1% ), Dave (<1%)

Who has momentum?

 Adam

Adam has firmly established himself as the player to beat. After the Round of 32, he was merely hanging on to the lead. This round, he outscored every direct rival except Danny and has:

• Increased his lead from a tie on points to a three-point cushion.
• Extended his tournament-best spot-on tally to 15.
• Continued to combine consistency with regular exact scores.

He's entering the closing stages in the strongest position of anyone.

 Danny

Danny is the form player of the knockout rounds.

Since the group stage:

• 29 points in Round 3.
• 19 points in the Round of 32.
• 14 points in this round.

He's climbed from the lower half of the standings into third and is now only six points off the lead. His knack for calling penalty shootouts has also been a differentiator.

If anyone is capable of making a late charge, it's Danny.

 SJ

SJ remains firmly in contention.

He didn't have a spectacular round overall, but his correctly called 0-0 penalty shootout kept him in touch. Three points behind with eight matches left is a very manageable gap.

The dark horse

 Danny

Danny keeps this title.

Six points is a meaningful deficit, but it's well within reach over eight matches. He's also shown the highest ceiling of anyone in the knockout phase, with multiple high-scoring rounds and good instincts for knockout football.

If Adam or SJ have one poor round, Danny is perfectly placed to capitalise.

Who has let themselves down?

Phil

Phil is the biggest disappointment of this round. He entered it just one point off the lead and with a genuine chance of taking control of the competition. Instead, he managed only 3 points, the lowest score of any active contender. That's a huge swing at this stage of the tournament.

Ben

Ben hasn't had a disastrous round, but after his brilliant Round of 32 (24 points added), this was a missed opportunity. Scoring only 8 points while the leaders continued to accumulate means he's now 11 points back.

Ben

Canada v Morocco 1-2  0-3 (1pt)
Paraguay v France 1-3  0-1 (1pt)
Brazil v Norway 2-1  1-2 (0pts)
Mexico v England 2-2  2-3 (0pts)
Portugal v Spain 1-2  0-1 (1pt)
USA v Belgium 2-2 Pens  1-4 (0pts)
Argentina v Egypt 2-1  3-2 (1pt)
Switzerland v Colombia 1-1 Pens  0-0 (1pt + 3pts)

Total: 0 spot-ons; 5 points.
Pens Bonus: 3 points.


Nick

Canada v Morocco   2-3  0-3 (1pt)
Paraguay v France  0-3  0-1 (1pt)
Brazil v Norway  1-1 Pens  1-2 (0pts)
Mexico v England  1-2  2-3 (1pt)
Portugal v Spain  0-2  0-1 (1pt)
USA v Belgium  2-1  1-4 (0pts)
Argentina v Egypt  2-1  3-2 (1pt)
Switzerland v Colombia 1-1  0-0 (1pt)

Total: 0 spot-ons; 6 points.
Pens Bonus: 0 points.


Adam

Canada v Morocco 1-2  0-3 (1pt)
Paraguay v France 0-2  0-1 (1pt)
Brazil v Norway 3-1  1-2 (0pts)
Mexico v England 1-2  2-3 (1pt)
Portugal v Spain 0-1  0-1 (3pts)
USA v Belgium 1-1 Pens  1-4 (0pts)
Argentina v Egypt 2-1  3-2 (1pt)
Switzerland v Colombia 0-0 Pens  0-0 (5pts + 3pts)

Total: 2 spot-ons; 12 points.
Pens Bonus: 3 points.


SJ

Canada v Morocco 0-2  0-3 (1pt)
Paraguay v France 0-3  0-1 (1pt)
Brazil v Norway 1-1  1-2 (0pts)
Mexico v England 2-1  2-3 (0pts)
Portugal v Spain 0-2  0-1 (1pt)
USA v Belgium 0-2  1-4 (1pt)
Argentina v Egypt 2-0  3-2 (1pt)
Switzerland v Colombia 1-1 Pens  0-0 (1pt + 6pts)

Total: 0 spot-ons; 6 points.
Pens Bonus: 6 points.


Theo L

Canada v Morocco 0-2  0-3 (1pt)
Paraguay v France 0-3  0-1 (1pt)
Brazil v Norway 1-1 Pens  1-2 (0pts)
Mexico v England 2-3  2-3 (5pts)
Portugal v Spain 0-2  0-1 (1pt)
USA v Belgium 1-2  1-4 (1pt)
Argentina v Egypt 0-0 Pens  3-2 (0pts)
Switzerland v Colombia 1-2  0-0 (0pts)

Total: 1 spot-on; 9 points.
Pens Bonus: 0 points.


Theo W

Canada v Morocco 1-1  0-3 (0pts)
Paraguay v France 0-3  0-1 (1pt)
Brazil v Norway 1-2  1-2 (3pts)
Mexico v England 1-1 Pens  2-3 (0pts)
Portugal v Spain 1-2  0-1 (1pt)
USA v Belgium 2-1  1-4 (0pts)
Argentina v Egypt 2-0  3-2 (1pt)
Switzerland v Colombia 0-2  0-0 (0pts)

Total: 1 spot-on; 6 points.
Pens Bonus: 0 points.


Phil

Canada v Morocco  2-1  0-3 (0pts)
Paraguay v France  1-3  0-1 (1pt)
Brazil v Norway  3-1  1-2 (0pts)
Mexico v England  3-1  2-3 (0pts)
Portugal v Spain   1-3  0-1 (1pt)
USA v Belgium   2-1  1-4 (0pts)
Argentina v Egypt  3-1  3-2 (1pt)
Switzerland v Colombia  1-3  0-0 (0pts)

Total: 0 spot-ons; 3 points.
Pens Bonus: 0 points.


Danny

Canada v Morocco  1-2  0-3 (1pt)
Paraguay v France  1-3  0-1 (1pt)
Brazil v Norway  2-2  1-2 (0pts)
Mexico v England  1-1  2-3 (0pts)
Portugal v Spain  0-1  0-1 (3pts)
USA v Belgium  1-1 Pens  1-4 (0pts)
Argentina v Egypt  2-0  3-2 (1pt)
Switzerland v Colombia  0-0 Pens  0-0 (5pts + 3pts)

Total: 2 spot-ons; 11 points.
Pens Bonus: 3 points.