With the leading trio threatening to have everything their own way during the tournament, the chasing pack had to respond. And respond they did, as Mr Moore (15), Mr Stewart-Jones (14) and Mr O'Callaghan (13) were the three lowest scoring managers in the round of 32, such was the uptick in form of those behind them in the overall standings. Mr Raistrick was the outstanding performer, as he added a huge 24 points to his tally to jump to 4th in the table and just 4 points off the lead. The other manager to break the 20 barrier was Mr West, which breathed life into his campaign and a similar performance in the last 16 could see him challenge the leaders down the final stretch. To complete the picture, I scored 19, whilst Mr Luke and Mr Crinnion scored 16 apiece.

Last 16 fixtures sent earlier today. Any mistakes, let me know.

Take it easy,

Danny


PredictioBot has the following to say about how things are likely to go from here:

Win probability: Adam (28%), SJ (25%), Phil (21%), Ben (15%), Danny (6%), Theo L (3%), Theo W (1%), Nick (1%), Dave (<1%)

🟢 Adam (28%) — Still favourite... but only just

Adam remains the narrow favourite because he's:

  • Joint leader.
  • Tournament leader in spot-ons (13).
  • Been remarkably consistent throughout.

What's changed is that his advantage has almost disappeared. He scored a perfectly respectable knockout round, but others around him scored more heavily.

Verdict: Still the man to beat, but no longer has any breathing room.

🟢 SJ (25%) — The statistical challenger

SJ is in almost exactly the same position as Adam.

He's level on points, only two spot-ons behind and continues to find exact scores even when not having spectacular rounds.

If these two continue performing as they have all tournament, they're likely to be separated by only a point or two at the finish.

🟢 Phil (21%) — Lurking ominously

Phil is exactly where you'd want to be.

Only one point off the lead, without needing to take unnecessary risks.

He hasn't dominated any round, but he hasn't had a bad one either.

One strong quarter-final or semi-final could easily put him top.

📈 Momentum player: Ben

Ben has quietly produced arguably the tournament's best knockout start:

  • 24 points from the Round of 32.
  • Five exact scores.
  • Correct penalties prediction.
  • Jumped from sixth to fourth.

He's only four points off the lead now.

Momentum matters because confidence often translates into sticking with your instincts instead of chasing unlikely results.

If anyone is most likely to break into the top three, it's Ben.

Danny

Danny remains dangerous.

He keeps producing high-scoring rounds and has a successful penalty prediction already in the tournament.

Five points is absolutely recoverable.

His challenge is consistency - his lows have been lower than the four players above him.

Theo L

Eight behind isn't impossible.

However, Theo L has been consistently good rather than explosive.

At this stage he probably needs one exceptional round to get back into the championship conversation.

Theo W

Nine back with only sixteen matches left is becoming difficult.

The void fixture didn't help.

Still capable of climbing several places, but the title would now require an outstanding finish.

Nick

Eighteen points behind.

He actually has ten spot-ons, showing his predictions are often close, but he's lacked the big scoring rounds needed to keep pace.

Dave

Needs a miracle.

Mathematically possible.

Realistically not.

Championship outlook

This has become a fascinating contest. After three rounds it looked like a three-player race between Adam, SJ and Phil. Ben's outstanding Round of 32 has transformed it into a genuine four-way battle, with Danny still close enough to punish any slip-ups.

If I had to group the field:

  • Clear favourites (89% combined): Adam, SJ, Phil, Ben.
  • Outside contenders (10% combined): Danny, Theo L, Theo W.
  • Need a miracle (1% combined): Nick, Dave.

The tournament is entering the stage where a single bold prediction - particularly an unexpected upset or correctly calling a penalty shootout - could be worth six or more points relative to the field. That makes the next round potentially decisive.




Theo L

South Africa v Canada 1-2  0-1 (1pt)
Brazil v Japan 3-1  2-1 (1pt)
Germany v Paraguay 3-0  1-1 (0pts)
Netherlands v Morocco 2-1  1-1 (0pts)
Ivory Coast v Norway  1-2 1-2 (3pts)
France v Sweden 3-0  3-0 (3pts)
Mexico v Ecuador 2-1  2-0 (1pt)
England v DR Congo 2-0  2-1 (1pt)
Belgium v Senegal  2-1  2-2 (0pts)
USA v Bosnia-H 3-1  2-0 (1pt)
Spain v Austria  2-0  3-0 (1pt)
Portugal v Croatia  1-1 Pens  2-1 (0pts)
Switzerland v Algeria  2-0  2-0 (3pts)
Australia v Egypt 2-1  1-1 (0pts)
Argentina v Cape Verde 4-0  1-1 (0pts)
Colombia v Ghana  2-1  1-0 (1pt)

Total: 3 spot-ons; 16 points.
Pens Bonus: 0 points.


Phil

South Africa v Canada 1-2  0-1 (1pt)
Brazil v Japan  3-1  2-1 (1pt)
Germany v Paraguay  3–1  1-1 (0pts)
Netherlands v Morocco  3-1  1-1 (0pts)
Ivory Coast v Norway  1-3  1-2 (1pt)
France v Sweden  3-1  3-0 (1pt)
Mexico v Ecuador  3-1  2-0 (1pt)
England v DR Congo 3-1  2-1 (1pt)
Belgium v Senegal  3-1  2-2 (0pts)
USA v Bosnia-H  2-1  2-0 (1pt)
Spain v Austria  3-1  3-0 (1pt)
Portugal v Croatia  2-1  2-1 (3pts)
Switzerland v Algeria  2-1  2-0 (1pt)
Australia v Egypt  1-1  1-1 (3pts)
Argentina v Cape Verde  3-1  1-1 (0pts)
Colombia v Ghana  1-2  1-0 (0pts)

Total: 2 spot-ons; 15 points.
Pens Bonus: 0 points.


Ben

South Africa v Canada 1-2  0-1 (1pt)
Brazil v Japan 2-1  2-1 (3pts)
Germany v Paraguay 3-1  1-1 (0pts)
Netherlands v Morocco 2-1  1-1 (0pts)
Ivory Coast v Norway 1-2  1-2 (3pts)
France v Sweden 3-1  3-0 (1pt)
Mexico v Ecuador 2-0  2-0 (3pts)
England v DR Congo 2-1  2-1 (3pts)
Belgium v Senegal 1-1  2-2 (1pt)
USA v Bosnia-H 2-1  2-0 (1pt)
Spain v Austria 2-0  3-0 (1pt)
Portugal v Croatia 1-1 Pens  2-1 (0pts)
Switzerland v Algeria 2-1  2-0 (1pt)
Australia v Egypt 1-1 Pens  1-1 Pens (3pts + 3pts)
Argentina v Cape Verde 3-1  1-1 (0pts)
Colombia v Ghana 2-2 Pens  1-0 (0pts)

Total: 5 spot-ons; 21 points.
Pens Bonus: 3 points.


SJ

South Africa v Canada 1-1  0-1 (0pts)
Brazil v Japan 1-1 Pens  2-1 (0pts)
Germany v Paraguay 2-0  1-1 (0pts)
Netherlands v Morocco 2-2 Pens  1-1 Pens (1pt + 3pts)
Ivory Coast v Norway 0-2  1-2 (1pt)
France v Sweden 4-1  3-0 (1pt)
Mexico v Ecuador 2-1  2-0 (1pt)
England v DR Congo 2-0  2-1 (1pt)
Belgium v Senegal 3-1  2-2 (0pts)
USA v Bosnia-H 1-1  2-0 (0pts)
Spain v Austria 2-0  3-0 (1pt)
Portugal v Croatia 2-0  2-1 (1pt)
Switzerland v Algeria 3-1  2-0 (1pt)
Australia v Egypt 0-2  1-1 (0pts)
Argentina v Cape Verde 4-0  1-1 (0pts)
Colombia v Ghana 1-0  1-0 (3pts)

Total: 1 spot-on; 11 points.
Pens Bonus: 3 points.


Nick

South Africa v Canada 1-2  0-1 (1pt)
Brazil v Japan  3-2  2-1 (1pt)
Germany v Paraguay  2-0  1-1 (0pts)
Netherlands v Morocco  3-2  1-1 (0pts)
Ivory Coast v Norway  0-1  1-2 (1pt)
France v Sweden  3-1  3-0 (1pt)
Mexico v Ecuador  2-0  2-0 (3pts)
England v DR Congo 2-0  2-1 (1pt)
Belgium v Senegal  0-1  2-2 (0pts)
USA v Bosnia-H  2-0  2-0 (3pts)
Spain v Austria  2-0  3-0 (1pt)
Portugal v Croatia  1-1 Pens  2-1 (0pts)
Switzerland v Algeria  1-0  2-0 (1pt)
Australia v Egypt  0-2  1-1 (0pts)
Argentina v Cape Verde  1-0  1-1 (0pts)
Colombia v Ghana  1-0  1-0 (3pts)

Total: 3 spot-ons; 16 points.
Pens Bonus: 0 points.


Adam

South Africa v Canada 0-2  0-1 (1pt)
Brazil v Japan 1-1 Pens  2-1 (0pts)
Germany v Paraguay 2-0  1-1 (0pts)
Netherlands v Morocco 2-1  1-1 (0pts)
Ivory Coast v Norway 1-2  1-2 (3pts)
France v Sweden 2-0  3-0 (1pt)
Mexico v Ecuador 2-1  2-0 (1pt)
England v DR Congo 2-0  2-1 (1pt)
Belgium v Senegal 1-0  2-2 (0pts)
USA v Bosnia-H 1-0  2-0 (1pt)
Spain v Austria 2-0  3-0 (1pt)
Portugal v Croatia 2-0  2-1 (1pt)
Switzerland v Algeria 1-2  2-0 (0pts)
Australia v Egypt 0-2  1-1 (0pts)
Argentina v Cape Verde 3-0  1-1 (0pts)
Colombia v Ghana 1-0  1-0 (3pts)

Total: 2 spot-ons; 13 points.
Pens Bonus: 0 points.


Theo W

South Africa v Canada Void
Brazil v Japan 2-1  2-1 (3pts)
Germany v Paraguay 3-1  1-1 (0pts)
Netherlands v Morocco 1-1 Pens  1-1 Pens (3pts + 3pts)
Ivory Coast v Norway 0-2  1-2 (1pt)
France v Sweden 4-0  3-0 (1pt)
Mexico v Ecuador 2-2  2-0 (0pts)
England v DR Congo 2-0  2-1 (1pt)
Belgium v Senegal 1-2  2-2 (0pts)
USA v Bosnia-H 2-1  2-0 (1pt)
Spain v Austria 2-0  3-0 (1pt)
Portugal v Croatia 2-0  2-1 (1pt)
Switzerland v Algeria 2-1  2-0 (1pt)
Australia v Egypt 1-1  1-1 (3pts)
Argentina v Cape Verde 3-0  1-1 (0pts)
Colombia v Ghana 2-1  1-0 (1pt)

Total: 3 spot-ons; 17 points.
Pens Bonus: 3 points.


Danny

South Africa v Canada  0-2  0-1 (1pt)
Brazil v Japan  2-0  2-1 (1pt)
Germany v Paraguay  2-0  1-1 (0pts)
Netherlands v Morocco  1-1 Pens  1-1 Pens (3pts + 3pts)
Ivory Coast v Norway  1-2  1-2 (3pts)
France v Sweden  3-0  3-0 (3pts)
Mexico v Ecuador  1-1 Pens  2-0 (0pts)
England v DR Congo 2-0  2-1 (1pt)
Belgium v Senegal  1-2  2-2 (0pts)
USA v Bosnia-H  2-1  2-0 (1pt)
Spain v Austria  2-0  3-0 (1pt)
Portugal v Croatia  1-0  2-1 (1pt)
Switzerland v Algeria  1-1  2-0 (0pts)
Australia v Egypt  0-0  1-1 (1pt)
Argentina v Cape Verde  3-0  1-1 (0pts)
Colombia v Ghana  0-0  Pens  1-0 (0pts)

Total: 3 spot-ons; 16 points.
Pens Bonus: 3 points.